Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Is The Rally Over? Has The Pullback Now Started? | Lance Roberts

June 6, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The Rally May Have Just Peaked—But the Correction Could Look Different Than You Expect

Lance Roberts opened the show with a direct answer: "Has the correction started? By all intents and measures, technically speaking, yes, the correction is started." After nine straight winning weeks—one of the longest streaks on record—the S&P 500 finally looked set to close a week in the red. But Roberts immediately added a crucial caveat: the pullback may not look like what most investors are bracing for.

A Rotational Correction, Not a Broad Sell-Off

The key insight Roberts offered is that the market's composition matters more than its headline number. The rally that just ended was extraordinarily narrow—driven almost entirely by semiconductors and mega-cap tech. Those sectors now make up roughly 50% of the S&P 500. So when they correct, they drag the index down mechanically, even if other parts of the market are holding up or rising.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (00:00) **Has The Correction Started?** - Lance declares that by all technical measures, a correction has begun, though it may be a rotational shift rather than a broad sell-off.
  • 2 (03:00) **Rotational Correction vs. Broad Sell-Off** - Lance explains the market may not correct in the way most expect; capital may just rotate from tech into value.
  • 3 (08:00) **Earnings Expectations at Recessionary Levels** - Forward EPS growth is nearing 30%, a level normally seen only coming out of recessions.
  • 4 (11:00) **Economic Strength vs. Consumer Weakness** - Adam notes strong jobs data, GDP tracking ~3%, and ISM manufacturing expansion, but Lance highlights the consumer is slowing.
  • 5 (15:00) **Market Only Cares About Published Data** - Lance argues that personal feelings about data quality are irrelevant; markets trade on the published numbers.
  • 6 (19:00) **Economic Composite Index Shows Broad Improvement** - Lance shows a broad macro indicator covering ~100 data points, confirming economic resurgence since 2023.
  • 7 (22:00) **Multiple Data Sources Confirm Job Growth** - Lance shows Revelia Labs and Bank of America payroll data, both corroborating the BLS narrative of strong hiring.

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Guests on this episode

Lance Roberts

Show Notes

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comStocks finally had a down week, breaking a 9-in-row streak of up weeks.And in particular, the markets broke down hard on Friday. The S&P was down over -2.5% and the NASDAQ down nearly -5%.Regular watchers know that portfolio manager Lance Roberts has been warning for weeks that a pullback was likely.Now that it appears to be here, how low could things go?He and I discuss that, as well as the SpaceX and other new IPOs, the latest jobs numbers, private credit & oil reserve risks, and of course, his firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.#marketcorrection #ipo #oilreserves _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Thoughtful-Money-Disclosure-Document-12.6.23.pdf?pid=227Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Thoughtful-Money-Agreement-Agreement.docx?pid=227IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

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