Is Cuba Next? | Mario Braga, RANE

March 26, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Cuba's geopolitical tensions with the US trace back to Fidel Castro's 1959 socialist revolution, which prompted a US embargo in the 1960s amid Cold War rivalries, including the 1962 missile crisis. Mario Braga, RANE's Latin American strategist, explains how Cuba's economy has hinged on external oil subsidies—first from the Soviet Union until its 1991 collapse, triggering the "Special Period" of shortages, then from Venezuela since the late 1990s in exchange for Cuban doctors and intelligence services like military purges. Today, with Venezuela's output declining, Cuba produces only 40% of its oil needs; imports from Mexico briefly overtook Venezuela in 2025 but halted after US tariff threats, leaving the grid—reliant on oil-fired plants—failing amid blackouts up to 20 hours daily.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Introduction & Guest Welcome** - Adam Taggart introduces the episode on Cuba with RANE strategist Mario Braga.
2 (02:29) **Historical Context: The Embargo & Cold War** - Mario begins with a history lesson on US-Cuba relations since the 1960s.
3 (04:13) **The Soviet Collapse & Rise of Venezuelan Support** - Cuba lost its main ally with the USSR's collapse, then found a new one in Venezuela.
4 (07:28) **Energy Dependency & Current Crisis** - Cuba's reliance on foreign oil is the cornerstone of its current economic and energy crisis.
5 (09:21) **Obama's Engagement & Trump's Reversal** - US policy shifted from embargo to engagement under Obama, then back to pressure under Trump.
6 (14:05) **Current US Pressure Tactics** - The Trump administration is using multiple levers to weaken Cuba beyond the oil embargo.
7 (15:48) **Dire Living Conditions in Cuba** - The energy crisis has created a severe humanitarian crisis with daily blackouts and shortages.

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Show Notes

The Trump Administration is now openly saying it may "take Cuba next".What does that mean?What would it look like?And why does the US want to do this?To address, RANE's LatAm analyst Mario Braga joins us for this livestream where he'll provide his latest assessment of the situation and take live audience Q&A

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