Iran "Peace Deal" To Change The World For The Better...Or Worse? | Michael Every

June 16, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In the hours after President Trump announced a "peace deal" between the U.S. and Iran, global strategist Michael Every offered a sobering reality check: "The words peace and deal are doing a lot of very heavy lifting in that particular sentence." Speaking with Adam Taggart on Thoughtful Money, Every—who has been tracking the shift from globalization to mercantilism for over a decade—dissected what is known, what is unknown, and why the headline may not match the ground truth.

The "Memorandum of Misunderstanding"

The announced agreement, Every argues, is best understood as a loose, performance-based memorandum of understanding—not a binding peace. The only side releasing details is Iran's FARS news service, which claims the terms are identical to ones Trump vociferously rejected weeks ago before ordering further strikes. No text has been made public, and Trump himself told the New York Times that if 60 days of negotiations fail to resolve the nuclear issue, "of course I start bombing them again." Every's baseline assessment: the probability that Iran has actually agreed to verifiably give up its nuclear ambitions is under 50%. "It's not impossible," he says, but "very, very unlikely."

The Core Sticking Points

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What you'll learn

1 (01:06) **"Peace Deal" or "Memorandum of Misunderstanding"?** - Michael Every immediately casts doubt on the headline, arguing both words do "heavy lifting" and the deal is likely a loose, performance-based MOU.
2 (06:07) **Who Is the US Actually Negotiating With?** - Explains the fractured Iranian power structure (government vs. IRGC) and the role of Pakistan as a middleman, creating a "telephone game" of interpretation.
3 (09:26) **Will the Gulf States Ever Trust Iran Again?** - Argues the region will not revert to pre-war dynamics; every country will accelerate "Plan B" infrastructure to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
4 (13:35) **Likelihood of the Abraham Accords Expanding** - Very low. Every points to the IMEC corridor (India-Middle East-Europe) as the real US architecture, but Iran remains an obstacle.
5 (17:08) **Core Issue: A Non-Nuclear Iran** - Every calls this the "table stick" Trump cannot walk away from, but assesses the probability of Iran truly giving up enrichment as "less than 50%."
6 (22:40) **Reopening the Strait of Hormuz** - A huge short-term deal (oil prices down ~4% on the news), but Every warns of a "one-off hostage exchange" scenario rather than a sustained reopening.
7 (30:50) **Iran Defunding Its Proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis)** - "Not gonna happen." Every explains these are Iran's defensive shield and offensive weapon.

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Guests on this episode

Adam Taggart

Show Notes

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comThe trend change away from globalization towards nationalism and mercantilism continues around the world.For the man who predicted this over a decade in advance, what does he see ahead for both geopolitics and the global economy?We're very fortunate to sit down again today with Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank.#peacedeal #iranwar #geopolitics _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.