"I'm A Buyer Of Oil Here" | Jeff Currie

June 17, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In the three months since the outbreak of the US-Iran war, the global oil market has gotten tighter by the minute. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) sits at a 43-year low, and commercial product inventories have fallen below the five-year safety band. The only thing keeping the market from a full-blown crisis is the SPR itself. Jeff Currie, Executive Co-Chairman of ABACS Markets, joins the podcast to explain the mechanics of the current situation, why a peace deal may not be the cure-all markets are betting on, and why he is a buyer of oil and oil companies at today’s prices.

The Physics of the Drawdown and "Day Zero"

Currie frames the oil market as a physics problem. Before the war, roughly 12 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply transited through the Strait of Hormuz. While some oil has leaked out—perhaps 40-50% of the 110-120 million barrels initially trapped in the Gulf—the net disruption is still around 10 million bpd. Against this, global inventories are being drawn at an unsustainable rate of 5-6 million bpd. “It’s like a sinkhole,” Currie says. “They’re going down really fast.”

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What you'll learn

1 (03:18) **Current Oil Market Assessment** - Jeff describes inventories as critically tight, with U.S. SPR at a 43-year low and commercial inventories below the five-year safety band.
2 (05:38) **"Day Zero" Timeline and Mechanics** - Explains the concept of hitting a critical low in U.S. oil inventories, likely in mid-July.
3 (08:12) **Best-Case vs. Likely Outcome for Inventories** - Even if a peace deal is perfect, logistical hurdles make avoiding Day Zero unlikely.
4 (13:21) **The Shut-In Well Problem** - Explains the permanent damage risk from forced production shutdowns across the Gulf.
5 (16:08) **Who Gets Hit Hardest by Day Zero** - The U.S. is relatively insulated; the real pain hits Europe and Asia.
6 (21:56) **Why U.S. Production Can't Fill the Gap** - Near-term production increases are negligible.
7 (26:22) **The Revenge of the Old Economy** - Explains the decade-long structural underinvestment in commodities.

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Show Notes

WANT TO INVEST IN COMMODITIES? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comIt has been three months after the outbreak of the US/Iran war, and the world is still dealing with the ongoing effects of an oil price shock.Not only is that having an inflationary impact on the prices of many goods & services, but it's also raising increasing concerns of the availability of oil supplies.Could the world soon start experiencing an inventory shortage of oil -- the essential fuel that enables global commerce?Or will the recently announced peace deal between the US and Iran allow us to avoid that fate?To find out, we have the great good fortune to talk today with Jeff Currie, Executive Co-Chairman of Abaxx Markets.#oilprice #straitofhormuz #copper _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.