Here's The Latest Outlook From Lacy Hunt, Ed Dowd, Lyn Alden + A Dozen Other Experts

March 24, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Thoughtful Money's Spring Online Conference featured 11 hours of presentations and Q&A from experts like Lacy Hunt, Luke Gromen, Ed Dowd, and others, focusing on economic risks from the oil price shock tied to the Iran war, alongside liquidity strains, asset outlooks, and select opportunities.

Oil Shock Hits Vulnerable Economy

Lacy Hunt, former Fed economist, explained that oil shocks are global and hit hard due to inelastic demand and few substitutes, forcing recalculations across economies. In the current teetering conditions, this shifts supply curves inward, raising prices while lowering GDP. Luke Gromen warned of a stagflationary recession worse than 2008 and COVID combined, likening it to Q4 2007 when on-the-ground distress contrasted with market highs. Ed Dowd added a deflationary tilt, noting oil's liquidity squeeze in supply chains, with the USD rebounding from 100 toward higher levels amid rising defaults.

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What you'll learn

1 (01:03) **Conference Intro** - Host Adam Taggart recaps successful Spring Online Conference with expert speakers on economy and markets
2 (01:28) **Lacy Hunt on Oil Shock** - Former Fed economist explains global oil price surge's inelastic demand and stagflationary impact on vulnerable economy
3 (03:18) **Luke Gromen on Stagflationary Recession** - Predicts crisis worse than COVID + 2008 due to war in Iran hitting indebted global economy
4 (04:27) **Ed Dowd on Liquidity Squeeze** - Sees war-driven oil prices causing supply chain issues, dollar strength, and deflationary recession
5 (05:13) **Michael Howell on Global Liquidity** - Notes deteriorating liquidity from debt refinancing cycle, shifting money to real economy amid oil prices
6 (06:46) **Melody Wright on Housing Credit** - Details lender liquidity crunch and borrower distress tightening mortgages and private credit
7 (08:07) **Momentum Charts on Bear Market** - Signals stock market entering historic bubble burst with 50%+ multi-year decline ahead

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

BUY THE REPLAY of the full Thoughtful Money conference here at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

Well, the Spring Thoughtful Money conference was held online this past weekend and I’m delighted to say the event was a real success.

That was due primarily to the amazing line-up of speakers who presented and took live audience Q&A throughout the insight-packed 11-hour day.

Lacy Hunt delivered the keynote, followed by Ed Dowd, Luke Gromen, Michael Howell, Melody Wright, Michael Oliver, Stephanie Pomboy & Grant Williams, Brent Johnson, Darius Dale, Matt Taibbi, Judy Shelton & Danielle DiMartino Booth, Andy Schectman, Rick Rule, David Hay, Lyn Alden, New Harbor Financial and Jonathan Wellum. And Jeff Clark provided a bonus video focused on gold & silver mining stocks.

For those of you who didn’t attend, I thought you’d enjoy hearing some of the conference highlights.

You can also lock in your Early Bird ticket price to our Fall 2026 online conference at 0% inflation at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/fall

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