Fall Market Swoon, Followed By An End-Of-Year Boom? | Mark Newton, Fundstrat

August 25, 2026

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5 min read

Fall Market Swoon, Followed By An End-Of-Year Boom?

Fundstrat's Mark Newton expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000 by year-end, but he does not see a straight line higher. Speaking with Adam Taggart on Thoughtful Money, Newton laid out a forecast that calls for choppy, volatile conditions through the midterm elections, followed by a rally into year-end. His year-end target was recently lifted from 7,300 to 8,000.

The Near-Term Risks: Tech Consolidation, Rising Yields, and Higher Crude

Newton identifies three factors that could weigh on markets over the next two to three months. First, technology—roughly 30% of the market—still has "work to do" before it can regain its former momentum. While tech has rebounded from its sell-off, sectors like software and semiconductors need to consolidate further. "I don't suspect that tech is going to be probably the best sector over the next couple months," Newton says.

Second, crude oil looks likely to continue its bounce into mid-September or early October, which Newton views as "a source of probable discomfort for the markets." The hoped-for quick resolution to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has not materialized, keeping oil elevated.

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What you'll learn

1 (01:01) **Market Outlook: Choppy Path to 8,000** - Mark Newton lays out his baseline forecast: a volatile September, a choppy period through the midterms, but the S&P ending the year at a new target of 8,000.
2 (03:04) **Breadth Improvement as a Bullish Signal** - Newton highlights that the broadening of market participation beyond mega-cap tech is a key positive development.
3 (06:45) **The Three Biggest Near-Term Risks** - Newton identifies the three factors he believes will cause volatility over the next few months: tech consolidation, rising oil, and rising long-term yields.
4 (07:06) **Midterm Elections & The Gridlock Thesis** - Newton explains why he expects a post-election rally, regardless of which party wins, due to a likely reduction in partisanship.
5 (12:15) **Uncertainty vs. Fear: What Markets Really Hate** - Newton refines the common adage "markets hate uncertainty."
6 (17:05) **The "Treasury Put" and the Dollar Strategy** - Newton dives deep into the Treasury's new bond-buying program, framing it as a deliberate policy to cap long-term yields and weaken the dollar.
7 (24:31) **Fed Chair Warsh's Communication Style** - Newton comments on the tension between Treasury Secretary Bessent's market intervention and Fed Chair Warsh's desire for less communication.

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Guests on this episode

Adam Taggart

Show Notes

LOCK IN YOUR EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceMark Newton, Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat, expects a rocky ride for the stock market from now until the mid-term elections.But that doesn't mean he's bearish.Once the elections are resolved, he then expect the S&P to rise to a new price high of 8000 by the end of the year.So what assets and portfolio strategy is he recommending right now?To learn it all, watch this video.#marketcorrection #midtermelections #technicalanalysis _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.