Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Don't Fool Yourself: A Market Pullback Is Extremely Likely Now | Lance Roberts

May 30, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The S&P 500 has just logged its ninth consecutive weekly gain—a feat that has occurred only four times since 1965. Lance Roberts, portfolio manager at RIA Advisors, has been warning about an impending correction for weeks. He is still warning. But he is also the first to admit that momentum can last far longer than anyone expects, and that the bull market's fundamental underpinnings remain intact.

The mechanics of a narrow, momentum-driven rally

The current advance is not broad-based. It is almost entirely a technology story. Roberts showed a series of sector charts: technology has gone vertical, while energy, financials, industrials, staples, and communications have done essentially nothing since early this year. The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted, and technology now accounts for roughly 30% of the index. That single sector is dragging the entire market higher.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (00:00) **Extreme Rarity of 9+ Week Winning Streaks** - Lance opens by stating the market is in historically rare territory after eight weeks of consecutive advances, making a pullback highly probable.
  • 2 (04:27) **Fibonacci Retracement Shows Potential 7.5% Correction** - Lance displays a Fibonacci retracement of the S&P 500, noting a retracement to the 50% level would be about a 7.5% decline, which would feel like a crash after such a low-volatility advance.
  • 3 (07:35) **It's a Low-Breadth Rally Driven Entirely by Tech** - Lance shows sector charts proving technology is the only sector holding the index up; energy, communications, financials, industrials, and staples have done nothing this year.
  • 4 (10:16) **Semiconductors in a Parabolic, Unsustainable Move** - Lance highlights a 20-year chart of semiconductors showing a parabolic move, with potential for a 50-75% correction just to reach long-term moving averages.
  • 5 (13:19) **Capital Rotation Out of Tech Won't Be a Wash for Indices** - Lance explains that because tech is 30% of the index, a rotation out of tech into other sectors will likely pull the overall market down due to market-cap weighting.
  • 6 (18:43) **The Narrative vs. The Reality: A Gamma Squeeze** - Lance explains the surge in stocks like Micron and Dell is not just about AI demand, but a mechanical gamma squeeze driven by options market dynamics and short covering.
  • 7 (22:18) **Downside Protection Is Incredibly Cheap Right Now** - Lance notes that put options are as cheap as they've ever been because everyone is buying calls, making it a great time to hedge portfolios.

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Guests on this episode

Lance Roberts

Show Notes

Stocks are about to complete their 9th consecutive up week in a row.That's REALLY rare, folks.That alone suggests this market rally is long in the tooth.But given the current vertical price action in the semiconductor sector, odds are even higher that a material pullback will happen soon.So be very careful if you're chasing this rally warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.Lance and I discuss the rising pullback odds, as well as risks to the AI Trdes, tightening oil inventories, the potential unintended consequences of the new "Trump accounts", and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.


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