AI Summary
5 min readLance Roberts, portfolio manager at RIA Advisors, returned from a trip to England to find the S&P 500 at all-time highs. The market had staged one of its most violent rallies in decades, erasing a 20% decline in just two weeks. Roberts’s message to investors who missed the move is simple: don’t chase it. A pullback is coming, and that will be the time to add exposure, not now.
The Technical Case for the Rally
Two weeks before this conversation, Roberts had written about the 200-day moving average. His historical study showed that when the S&P 500 stays below that line for longer than four weeks, forward returns over the next year tend to be negative. But when it reclaims the 200-day in less than four weeks, forward returns are strongly positive, often delivering double-digit gains over twelve months. The market was below the 200-day for exactly three weeks.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:03) **Don't Chase This Rally** - Lance opens with a warning: if you missed the rally, wait for a pullback to support, don't buy here.
- 2 (01:34) **Opening & Travel Banter** - Adam welcomes Lance back from a trip to England, with lighthearted chat about the trip and British culture.
- 3 (07:01) **Market Context: Iran Conflict & Rally** - Adam sets the scene: Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz is open, and markets have rallied to all-time highs, pricing in an end to the war.
- 4 (09:29) **From Defensive to Full Offense** - Lance explains they have moved from hedged to fully invested, adding exposure during the rally.
- 5 (12:18) **The Rally's Historic Strength** - The NASDAQ and S&P 500 have recorded some of the longest consecutive winning streaks since 1950.
- 6 (13:19) **Why the Rally Happened: Contrarian Indicators** - The setup for this rally was extreme bearishness, record short volume, and high put option volume.
- 7 (14:09) **The Challenge of Bearish Bias** - Lance and Adam discuss how a persistently bearish view can lead to poor investment decisions.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
The S&P 500’s recovery rally is now the fastest since 1982.While a "face-ripping" rally is what portfolio manager Lance Roberts had been expecting to happen, he advises investors not to chase it at this point.He thinks it more likely that a pull-back will happen soon, to higher lows, providing a better buy-in opportunity compared to today's prices.We discuss this, as well as his latest thoughts on the Iran war's potential to continue to influence asset prices from here, whether the reflation trade is back on, what's happening in private credit, as well as his firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#iranwar #marketrally #privatecredit _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Thoughtful-Money-Disclosure-Document-12.6.23.pdf?pid=227Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Thoughtful-Money-Agreement-Agreement.docx?pid=227IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
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