Did The Bust Just Begin? | Jesse Felder

June 11, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Did The Bust Just Begin? | Jesse Felder

"The physics of it is not going to happen." That's how Jesse Felder, founder of the Felder Report, sums up his central concern about the AI boom. While markets continue to price in years of exponential growth for semiconductor companies and hyperscalers, Felder argues that a fundamental disconnect has opened up between what analysts expect and what the physical world can actually deliver. The result, he believes, is an AI bubble that is already beginning to deflate — and the broader consequences for both markets and the economy could be severe.

The Infrastructure Bottleneck

Felder's core argument rests on a straightforward constraint: the data centers needed to house all the chips being produced simply cannot be built fast enough. NVIDIA sells GPUs to middlemen like SuperMicro, who build racks and sell them onward to data center operators. But the data centers themselves aren't ready. Felder cites estimates that two-thirds of announced data center capacity cannot possibly be completed next year. Sam Altman himself acknowledged last year that "we can buy all the chips we want — we don't have the warehouses to plug them into." That problem has only gotten worse.

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What you'll learn

1 (02:08) **Jesse Felder's Macro Thesis: Prolonged Topping Process** - Felder argues the stock market is in an extended topping phase, with the AI boom representing a final blow-off leg.
2 (03:43) **The Core Physical Constraint: Data Centers Can't Be Built Fast Enough** - The fundamental problem is that chips are being produced faster than the data centers needed to house them can be constructed.
3 (07:48) **What Would Change Felder's Mind** - He would need to see a "miraculous" change in the speed of data center construction.
4 (09:14) **Political Headwinds: The Growing Backlash Against Data Centers** - Adam Taggart adds that political and community resistance is a new, compounding factor.
5 (13:20) **The Demand-Side Problem: The "Token Maxing" Phase is Ending** - The massive demand projections for AI compute are based on a subsidized, unsustainable phase that is now ending.
6 (14:45) **The Shift to On-Device AI** - A significant portion of AI processing is moving away from the cloud and onto individual devices.
7 (16:14) **Sam Altman's Conflicting Incentive** - Felder argues that Sam Altman's ultimate goal is to crash the cost of compute, which directly undermines the profitability of the massive data center buildout.

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Show Notes

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comWelcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm its founder & your host, Adam TaggartToday's guest has been warning for a good while now that the current bull market is stocks is in its final innings.In fact, he think the AI boom may be -- right now -- in the process of metastacizing into the AI bust.It's not all gloom for investors, though. He's quite bullish on commodities -- and the stocks of the companies that produce them -- which he sees as set to experience a multi-year boom.For a full update on his outlook, we welcome back to the program macro analyst Jesse Felder, founder & Editor of the respected market research firm: The Felder Report.Follow Jesse at http://thefelderreport.com/#aistocks #marketcorrection #commodities _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Thoughtful-Money-Disclosure-Document-12.6.23.pdf?pid=227Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Thoughtful-Money-Agreement-Agreement.docx?pid=227IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.