Did The AI Bubble Just "Jump The Shark" With The SpaceX IPO? | Chris Irons, Quoth The Raven

June 23, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

SpaceX went public last week at a valuation that briefly touched $2.5 trillion—making it worth more than Microsoft—despite generating roughly $18 billion in annual revenue and carrying an accumulated deficit of over $40 billion. For Chris Irons of Quoth the Raven, this is not just another overpriced IPO. It is the moment the AI bubble "jumped the shark," and a potential systemic risk for anyone who owns an index fund.

The Valuation That Defies Arithmetic

Irons anchors his argument in a simple comparison. At its dot-com peak, Cisco traded at roughly 40 times sales. Amazon traded at about 20 times sales. SpaceX debuted at roughly 100 times sales—two and a half times the multiple of the poster child for the dot-com crash. "I don't care what your fucking projection is for 2030, 2040, 2050," Irons says. "The amount of progress the company would have to make to catch up to its valuation now is ridiculous."

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What you'll learn

1 (01:03) **Thesis Setup** - Chris Irons explains why he wrote the piece and views the SpaceX IPO as a referendum on the entire AI bubble
2 (02:32) **Valuation Ask** - Details the $2T–$2.5T IPO valuation and how it compares to prior market peaks
3 (06:34) **Dot-Com Era Benchmarks** - Compares SpaceX multiples to Amazon (~20x) and Cisco (~40x) at their peaks
4 (08:58) **Revenue & Profitability Gap** - Current ~$18–19B revenue versus public claims of $1T by 2030
5 (10:13) **Market-Cap Distortions** - Notes SpaceX briefly surpassing Microsoft in market value despite far lower sales and negative earnings
6 (12:07) **Index Inclusion & Float Mechanics** - Small public float plus options-driven gamma squeeze creating artificial upward pressure
7 (14:34) **Gamma Squeeze Mechanics** - Options activity (especially weekly calls) layering additional bid on top of already euphoric valuations

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Guests on this episode

Chris Irons

Show Notes

AI-driven speculation in the stock market went into overdrive last week with the launch of the SpaceX IPO.And that may be very dangerous, warns Quoth The Raven's Chris Irons.In fact, he thinks it may have the definitive "jump the shark" moment for the AI bubble.To understand why and how severe the fallout could be, watch this video.

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