Current "Massive Deviation" Suggest Stocks Will Pullback By Up To 15% Soon | Lance Roberts

May 9, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Adam Taggart and Lance Roberts review recent economic data and market conditions, highlighting weakening under-the-hood indicators amid a narrow stock rally driven by semiconductors and AI. They discuss risks of a 10-15% pullback due to overextension, while noting AI capital spending as a growth buffer, steady bond yields, and limited threats from private credit or U.S. debt.

Jobs Report and Consumer Sentiment Weakness

The May jobs report added 115,000 jobs, below the 200,000-250,000 needed monthly to match population growth and economic expansion. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% monthly and 3.6% yearly, both down from prior readings, signaling slowing wage growth across groups. Labor force participation continues declining, pointing to a K-shaped economy where benefits skew to capital owners via AI and automation, as outlined in Roberts' "robot economy" report.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:53) **Market Deviation Warning** - Lance highlights S&P far above moving averages signaling 10-15% pullback risk
2 (01:36) **Weekly Recap Intro** - Adam welcomes Lance amid Italy trip banter and summer fitness updates
3 (03:26) **Blowout Jobs Report Breakdown** - Headline beats expectations but underwhelms on details like slowing wage growth
4 (04:08) **Consumer Sentiment Plunge** - Michigan index at record lows, politically skewed; Conference Board weaker but better gauge
5 (07:07) **Composite Sentiment vs. S&P** - Chart shows diverging trend since 2022 revival; households under pressure despite market highs
6 (09:40) **Labor Force Decline & K-Shaped Economy** - Participation falling; benefits shifting to capital/robots widening divides
7 (11:43) **Wealth Gap & Socialism Outlook** - Bottom 80% struggles drive UBI/redistribution votes; rich flee high taxes

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Show Notes

Stocks have rallied so far so fast there's now a "massive deviation" between prices and their daily moving averages.Technical analysis strongly suggests that the risk of pullback, possibly as much as 15%, is now high warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.Lance and I discuss the odds of this happening soon, as well as the new non-farm payrolls and UMICH consumer sentiment data, as well as bond yields, credit spreads, private equity and, of course, Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.#marketcorrection #jobsreport #bonds _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Thoughtful-Money-Disclosure-Document-12.6.23.pdf?pid=227Thoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Thoughtful-Money-Agreement-Agreement.docx?pid=227IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.