Cracks Starting To Show In The Market? | Lance Roberts

July 25, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In a recent episode of Thoughtful Money, host Adam Taggart and portfolio manager Lance Roberts dissected the current state of the market, focusing on the AI trade, the risks of a near-term correction, and the behavioral traps that cause retail investors to underperform. The conversation balanced a sober assessment of market vulnerabilities with a strong defense of long-term, fundamentals-based investing.

The AI Trade: Earnings Are All That Matters

The central thesis of the discussion was that earnings growth is the single most important driver of market returns. Roberts cited BCA research showing that when S&P 500 EPS growth is positive, the market delivers a positive return 92% of the time. He argued that despite a cacophony of negative headlines, the trend of earnings growth remains extremely positive, pointing to Google’s recent blockbuster report as evidence. Google posted $119.8 billion in revenue (up 24% year-over-year) and a 34% operating margin. Roberts emphasized focusing on operating income rather than net income, which can be distorted by one-time gains from private investments.

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What you'll learn

1 Cracks Starting To Show In The Market? | Lance Roberts
2 (00:00) **Market Opening: A Crack in the Compression** - The market has broken down from a consolidation range, opening up risk for a correction down to the 100-day moving average around 7180 on the S&P 500.
3 (05:50) **The Only Thing That Matters: Earnings Growth** - Lance argues that all market narratives are secondary to the trend of earnings growth, citing BCA research showing that 84% of the time the market is positive when earnings are positive.
4 (08:50) **Why Google Stock Fell on Great Earnings** - The market is behaving "twitchy," with companies beating revenue being sold off, which is the opposite of normal market behavior.
5 (10:50) **Decoding Negative Free Cash Flow (Capex vs. Bankruptcy)** - Negative free cash flow for hyperscalers is a temporary factor driven by massive, productive capital investment, not a sign of financial distress.
6 (14:33) **The AI Depreciation Risk: A Temporary Headwind** - While a real risk, the estimated $211 billion in depreciation expense is likely a temporary headwind that will be offset by future revenue growth.
7 (20:20) **The 5-10% Correction is Likely Priced In** - Lance believes a 5-10% correction in the market is highly probable, but this risk (including the depreciation concern) is already being factored into stock prices.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Adam Taggart Lance Roberts

Show Notes

GET YOURSELF SOME LMNT, INCLUDING YOUR FREE 8-COUNT SAMPLE PACK at https://drinklmnt.com/ThoughtfulMoneyAre cracks starting to show in the market?The S&P has gone nowhere for two months now, and a momentum sell signal has just triggered.It has also recently broken out of it's trading wedge...to the downside.Are these signs that should worry investors a larger correction may lie ahead? Or are there good reasons to expect a recovery soon?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the sustainability of the AI trade, the most common ways retail investors self-sabotage their returns, and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.#marketcorrection #aistocks #technicalanalysis _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.