Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

As Tech Trade Falters, Value Stocks Are Breaking Out | David Hay

July 26, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

As Tech Trade Falters, Value Stocks Are Breaking Out

David Hay, former CIO of Evergreen GaveKal and now publisher of the Substack Haymaker, joined Adam Taggart to argue that the market is undergoing a major rotation away from overvalued tech and AI stocks toward deeply undervalued energy, value, and hard asset plays. The central question: can the "giant mindless robot" of passive capital flows continue to support the market when so many forces—from Japanese repatriation to credit market stress to physical energy shortages—are aligning against it?

The Energy Thesis: Physical Reality vs. Paper Markets

Hay has been "the most bullish I've almost ever seen him on any particular asset class" on oil, and the move has validated his stance. WTI crude went from roughly $69 at the end of June to about $93 at the time of recording, with Brent already over $100. But Hay's thesis runs deeper than geopolitics.

The physical oil market, Hay emphasizes, is fundamentally different from the futures market, which is "50 to 60 times" the size of the physical market. Physical oil in Asia was trading at $170 a barrel even when futures were in the $60s. The disconnect reflects what Hay calls "incredible complacency and denial" about "the worst energy shortage we've ever seen."

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What you'll learn

  • 1 Timestamped Outline
  • 2 (00:46) **Opening Thesis: Value Stocks Breaking Out While Tech Falters** - David Hay introduces his core message that investors should be alert for opportunities in undervalued areas rather than retreating to bomb shelters
  • 3 (03:21) **Two Major Themes: Oil Bullishness and Repatriation Risk** - Adam Taggart frames the conversation around Hay's energy thesis and the underappreciated risk of foreign asset repatriation
  • 4 (04:57) **The Energy Thesis: Why Oil Was Set Up for a Monster Rally** - Hay explains the physical market dynamics that made him extremely bullish on oil when it was in the upper $60s
  • 5 (08:12) **Taking Profits But Still Bullish on Energy Equities** - Hay has been gradually liquidating some oil futures contracts after the monster rally but sees more upside in energy stocks
  • 6 (09:53) **The Structural Case for Higher Oil: Underinvestment and IEA Misinformation** - The deeper thesis rests on years of capital destruction and policy hostility toward fossil fuels
  • 7 (12:39) **Separating Oil from Energy Stocks: The Base Case** - Hay distinguishes between the commodity and the equities, explaining the structural support for both

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Show Notes

There are a multiplying number of reasons to worry that the dominant A.I. trade driving markets looks increasingly vulnerable.But the solution isn't retreating to a bunker says veteran investor David Hay, former CIO of Evergreen Gavekal.David expects a major rotation of capital from Big Tech into value stocks. In fact, he thinks it has already started.A number of value sectors have broken out to the upside, signaling they may have much farther to run now that resistance has been punctured.To learn where he sees the greatest opportunity right now, watch this video.

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