All Data Now Points To A Housing Recession | Nick Gerli

October 22, 2026

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5 min read

Home sales and mortgage applications are now at levels lower than during the 2008 financial crisis, even though unemployment sits in the low 4% range. That is the headline from housing analyst Nick Gerli, CEO of Reventure Consulting, who argues the U.S. housing market is mired in its fourth year of a demand depression. On the Thoughtful Money podcast with Adam Taggart, Gerli walked through the data showing that supply is now rising sharply in many regions, prices are beginning to crack in roughly half the country, and a demographic shift involving aging baby boomers is about to accelerate the downturn. Yet he also identified a handful of legacy cities—New York, Chicago, San Francisco—where the opposite dynamic is playing out, driven by AI-fueled agglomeration and a reversal of pandemic-era migration patterns.

The Demand Depression Is Real and Worsening

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What you'll learn

1 (01:00) **Housing Recession or Depression** - Nick Gerli states that nearly every data point now supports a housing recession, though national averages still mask local declines.
2 (04:37) **Price Declines Are Real and Spreading** - Values have already dropped by double digits in many major Sunbelt markets, while national averages remain flat.
3 (07:17) **Bifurcation: Winners and Losers** - The housing market is sharply divided between booming legacy cities and correcting Sunbelt markets.
4 (09:42) **2027 Price Forecasts by State** - Reventure's objective model shows which states are expected to correct and which will appreciate over the next 12 months.
5 (11:42) **Colorado: A Case Study in Supply Glut** - Inventory in Colorado has nearly tripled in five years while sales hit a 12-year low, creating a severe imbalance.
6 (16:42) **The "Slow Grind" vs. "Dam Break" Scenario** - Without a recession, price declines will be gradual due to seller denial; a recession would trigger a rapid crash.
7 (20:38) **Mortgage Rate Lock-In Has Flipped** - The share of homeowners with 6%+ mortgage rates now exceeds those with sub-3% rates, weakening the lock-in effect.

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Guests on this episode

Nick Gerli Adam Taggart

Show Notes

SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comAll data now points to a recession in housing, notes real estate analyst Nick Gerli.He sees prices grinding downwards next year, as sellers start capitulating.The silver lining?Housing is starting to become more affordable again in certain markets.For a firehouse of data showing the true state of the housing market right now, watch this video.#housingmarket #homeprices #realestate _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.