ALERT: Liquidity Has Peaked & That Means Lower Stock Prices Ahead | Michael Howell

January 9, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

🎙️ The Voices & The Context

The Format: In-depth interview with slides, blending casual host-guest banter and data-driven analysis.
The Key Players:
- Guest: Michael Howell, founder/CEO of CrossBorder Capital (rebranded Global Liquidity Index), "Mr. Liquidity" expert tracking global money flows for decades.
- Host: Adam Taggart, Thoughtful Money founder, probing questions on markets and policy.
The Vibe: Educational and intense, with cautious optimism—warning of market challenges amid strong economies.

🗝️ Key Themes & Topics

The discussion dives into global liquidity cycles, their impact on assets, and 2025 forecasts, emphasizing data over headlines.

Topic 1: Liquidity Cycle Peaking. Global liquidity hit ~$185 trillion, plateauing in Q4 2025; advanced economies (ex-China) follow 65-month debt-refi cycles, signaling downswing of 30-35 months. Fed's subtle support insufficient for bull markets.
Topic 2: Shift to "Treasury QE" & Main Street Focus. Liquidity redirecting from financial assets to real economy via government spending (defense, AI capex); echoes Scott Bessent's Fed criteria—quick response, no prolonged stimulus. Strong US economy absorbs market liquidity.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **🎙️ Introduction: Michael Howell**
2 (02:16) **Liquidity Cycle Peaking**
3 (03:56) **Fed Policy Shift to Treasury QE**
4 (06:40) **Economy vs. Stock Market Decoupling**
5 (08:19) **Historical Bubbles and Liquidity Inflection**
6 (12:56) **Equity Valuations and Risk Appetite**
7 (16:09) **Market Outlook and Cycle Length**

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Michael Howell, founder & CEO of Crossborder Capital, explains why he calculates the global liquidity cycle has peaked.He predicts stocks will go lower by the end of 2026.And possibly for several more years to come.

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