Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

A Sell-Off In Tech Is The Biggest Near-Term Risk To Markets Right Now | Lance Roberts

June 20, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

"Wait a second, we don't have any guidance to work off of. Maybe we need to de-risk some." That is the market's likely reaction next week, according to portfolio manager Lance Roberts, after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh formally abandoned the central bank's practice of forward guidance. Combined with massive end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing and a pullback in corporate buybacks, Roberts sees more downside risk than upside over the next two weeks—especially for the overheated semiconductor sector. But this near-term caution comes within a broader bullish framework: record money flows, a collapsing oil price that relieves inflationary pressure, and a Fed that is finally stepping back to let the market function.

The Fed's New Sheriff: Removing the Training Wheels

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (00:56) **The Big Near-Term Risk: Semiconductors** - Lance identifies the biggest near-term risk to markets as a sell-off in the overheated semiconductor sector, which has gotten "way, way ahead of itself."
  • 2 (01:35) **Guest Introduction & Travel Story** - Adam welcomes back Lance Roberts from his vacation in Italy, where he experienced a robbery and travel chaos.
  • 3 (15:20) **Market Backdrop: Flows vs. Liquidity** - Lance addresses the apparent contradiction between massive capital inflows and tightening liquidity.
  • 4 (18:27) **Evidence of Retail Speculation** - Charts show retail investors piling into markets and options, with margin debt as a percentage of M2 at an all-time record.
  • 5 (21:01) **The K-Shaped Economy Debate** - Lance presents data suggesting the "bottom 50%" are getting wealthier through market participation, challenging the narrative of a widening gap.
  • 6 (27:14) **Near-Term Headwinds: Rebalancing & Blackouts** - Lance outlines specific risks for the next two weeks, including quarter-end pension rebalancing and a corporate buyback blackout.
  • 7 (39:51) **The Kevin Warsh Fed Meeting: A New Regime** - The key market development: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh removed all forward guidance, changing the market's operating environment.

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Guests on this episode

Lance Roberts

Show Notes

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comThe peace deal announcement rescued markets last week, but Tech (especially semis) still remains very overbought here.So much so that portfolio manager Lance Roberts cautions the risks for the next few weeks are to the downside, should the white-hot Tech trade experience a pullback.We discuss the odds of that, as well as liquidity, the future of a Kevin Warsh Fed, what the bond market is telling us right now, the trouble with sentiment indicators, and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this Market Recap.#peacedeal #interestrates #marketcorrection _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

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