A Big Market Bull Just Turned Cautious | Ed Yardeni

September 20, 2026

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5 min read

Ed Yardeni, a strategist known for his long-standing bullish outlook on equities, has turned slightly more cautious. He has pushed his year-end S&P 500 target of 8,400 into the middle of next year, not because he expects a bear market, but because a cluster of short-term risks has become more intense. The core driver of the bull market—fabulous earnings momentum, or what he calls "FEMO"—remains intact. But the valuation multiple, or "FOMO" (fear of missing out), has been shrinking all year as investors grow hesitant to pay up for those strong earnings. The result is a market that is grinding higher rather than surging.

The Three Near-Term Risks

Yardeni identifies three interconnected concerns that have led him to trim his near-term outlook. The first is geopolitics. The re-escalation of the war in the Middle East is likely to keep oil prices "higher for longer," and those energy costs will seep into broader inflation through transportation and agricultural inputs. The second is the Federal Reserve. With oil-driven inflation persisting, Yardeni believes the market has concluded the Fed is not done hiking. He expects two more rate increases this year, which would keep bond yields elevated and pressure equity valuations. The third and most technical risk is the unwinding of the yen carry trade. For years, hedge funds borrowed at near-zero rates in Japan to buy higher-yieldin

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What you'll learn

1 (01:05) **Bull Turns Cautious: Target Slid to Mid-2025** - Ed Yardeni explains he has pushed his S&P 500 year-end target of 8,400 out to mid-2025, citing a convergence of short-term headwinds.
2 (03:51) **The Oil-Inflation-Fed Link** - Yardeni connects higher oil prices to broader inflation and Federal Reserve policy.
3 (04:23) **The Yen Carry Trade Unwind as a Global Force** - Yardeni identifies the Bank of Japan's tightening cycle as a major, underappreciated driver of rising global bond yields.
4 (07:58) **The Economy is Less Interest Rate Sensitive** - Yardeni argues the old business cycle model, where higher rates crush the economy, is broken.
5 (09:14) **The "G-Shaped" Economy: Boomers are Spending** - Yardeni rejects the "K-shaped" economy narrative, instead proposing a "G-shaped" economy where wealthy seniors are the engine of consumer spending.
6 (15:06) **The Debt Crisis: "I'll Worry When the Bond Market Worries"** - Yardeni addresses the risk of a sovereign debt crisis but remains skeptical of imminent doom.
7 (19:10) **What a Scary Bond Yield Looks Like** - Yardeni explains the specific metric he watches to gauge when bond yields become a real threat to the economy.

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Show Notes

LOCK IN YOUR EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceEd Yardeni, one of Wall Street's biggest perennial bulls, is now turning more cautious.And as a result, he has lowered his market forecast for the end of the year.Why?To find out, watch this video.#geopolitics #oilprices #marketcorrection _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.