Mining Matters - Cavendish says Blencowe Resources shares could go 500% higher

June 22, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Blencowe Resources, a graphite developer in Uganda, has a research analyst at Cavendish who believes the stock could rise more than 500% from its current price. The analyst, Ewan Lowe, recently published a note with a 47.9p price target, driven by a conviction that Western buyers will pay significant premiums over Chinese benchmark prices for non-Chinese graphite. The reasoning is not speculative optimism but a detailed case built on China's export controls, the company's downstream processing strategy, and the structure of its phased development plan.

Why Western buyers might pay more than the Chinese price

The core of Lowe's valuation rests on a single premise: Western graphite buyers are willing to pay prices well above current Chinese benchmarks. Chinese flake graphite prices are low right now, and if a project relied on those benchmarks, no Western graphite project would be viable. But Lowe argues that the relevant price is not the Chinese domestic price, because Western buyers face a structural supply problem.

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What you'll learn

1 (01:00) **Episode Introduction & Price Target Hook** - Host introduces Blencowe Resources and Cavendish analyst Ewan Lowe, highlighting the 500%+ upside price target that drives the conversation.
2 (01:50) **The Core Thesis: Western Premiums for Ex-China Graphite** - Lowe explains the fundamental driver of his valuation: Western buyers are willing to pay significant premiums over low Chinese benchmark prices to secure non-Chinese graphite supply.
3 (03:45) **The China Supply Risk Context** - Lowe expands on the geopolitical supply risk, noting China's export licensing system for graphite and other critical minerals like rare earths.
4 (04:17) **Downstream Strategy: The Key to Valuation** - Lowe explains Blencowe's plan to beneficiate graphite in Uganda, turning low-value small flake into high-value concentrate.
5 (06:56) **Valuation Methodology & Risking** - Lowe details how he applies a risking factor to the unrisked NPV based on project stage.
6 (09:11) **Timing of Funding & Production** - Lowe discusses his expectations for when Blencowe will secure funding and move toward production.
7 (12:04) **Revenue & Profit Projections** - Lowe outlines the phased build-out and the resulting financial trajectory.

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Show Notes

Yuen Low, director of research at Cavendish joins Vox for a discussion about Blencowe Resources, a company he has just issued an extensive report on. Low talks about his aggressive price target of 47.9p for the company, and his expectations that in due course EBITDA from Blencowe's Orom-Cross graphite project in Uganda could go into the hundreds of millions of dollars. Key to his optimism is the new paradigms in financial markets being shaped by resource nationalism and Chinese reluctance to export.