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5 min readProfit Warnings, Takeovers, and UK Small Caps: A Mid-Year Portfolio Check
"Two profit warnings in my portfolio this week" — that's how Paul Scott, equity analyst at Stop Markets Company, opened his mid-year review with co-host Paul Hill on the Vox Markets Podcast. The conversation ranged across a dozen UK small caps, from software companies hit by the "Sasapocalypse" to building products firms waiting for a cyclical recovery, with takeovers emerging as a recurring theme.
Craneware: A Profit Warning Under the Microscope
The most detailed dissection of the episode centered on Craneware, a US hospital software specialist that issued a profit warning that sent shares down roughly 25% before recovering to an 18% loss. The miss was modest — only a 6% EBITDA shortfall against forecasts — but the market reaction was severe because of what it revealed about the business model's vulnerability.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:15) **Welcome & Portfolio Check-In** - Paul Hill and Paul Scott open the show, discussing their first-half portfolio performance.
- 2 (03:43) **Craneware Profit Warning** - Deep dive into the US hospital software company’s warning, which sent shares down ~20%.
- 3 (18:26) **CMC Markets Profit Upgrade** - A seven-bagger story: the spread-betting and CFD platform issued a massive upgrade.
- 4 (22:48) **Topps Tiles Profit Warning** - A 30% profit miss but shares only fell 5%, a bullish signal.
- 5 (26:45) **James Latham (Timber Merchant)** - Mixed outlook but shares rose; a classic value play.
- 6 (31:05) **ActiveOps Deep Dive** - A software company managing workforce efficiency; Hill and Scott debate valuation.
- 7 (42:22) **Focusrite (Professional Audio)** - Positive trading update; shares look cheap on a forward PE of ~10.
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Guests on this episode
Show Notes
Watch on YouTube
In this week’s live smallcap show, UK equity analyst & markets commentator Paul Scott & I discussed our latest thoughts on 17 stock ideas.
00:00 Portfolio performance in H1’26
02:45 Craneware
17:25 CMC Markets
21:45 Topps Tiles
25:45 James Latham
30:05 Activeops
41:20 Focusrite
45:15 Cake Box
49:05 Proservice Building Services
53:30 Seeing Machines
58:50 Invinity Energy Systems
61:50 JD Sports
63:45 AdvancedADVT
66:30 Filtronic
69:40 Kooth
73:05 Trifast
76:40 Cerillion
78:40 James Halstead
80:20 Outlook for H2’26
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