20VC: SpaceX Soars to $2.7TRN | Anthropic's Fable Banned by US Government | Wix and Adobe Hit All-Time Lows | Mistral Raising at $20BN and The Case for Sovereign Models | Fin Acquired by Salesforce for $3.6BN
June 18, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readSpaceX, Anthropic, and the AI Market's Great Sorting
SpaceX's IPO was the largest in history, and within days the company's market cap hit $2.7 trillion — making Elon Musk roughly a trillion dollars richer than the next wealthiest person. But as Benchmark's Eric Vishria and host Rory O'Driscoll discuss, the headline number comes with a critical asterisk: only about 4% of SpaceX shares are actually trading. That tiny float, combined with the arrival of options trading, creates conditions for gamma squeezes and forced buying that can distort the stock price dramatically. Vishria, who led Benchmark's investment in SpaceX in 2022, takes the under on the stock price six months from now, not because he doubts the company's long-term value, but because the mechanics of a low-float, high-mania stock create artificial upward pressure that will eventually normalize. "Nothing matters until the lockup's gone," he says. "It's almost like a private mark — it looks good, you love to look at it, you put it in your little spreadsheet, but you can't take it to the bank."
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:00) **Show Introduction** - Harry Stebbings introduces the episode with Rory O'Driscoll and a special guest from Benchmark, covering SpaceX, Anthropic, Salesforce/Finn, and Adobe.
- 2 (04:14) **SpaceX IPO: The Largest in History** - The hosts discuss SpaceX's successful IPO, its market cap hitting $2.7 trillion, and Elon Musk's massive net worth increase.
- 3 (10:07) **The "Long-Dated Call Option" Strategy** - The hosts analyze Elon Musk's ability to sell a long-term vision, creating massive value beyond current fundamentals.
- 4 (21:14) **Anthropic's Claude Fable Banned by US Government** - The hosts discuss the launch of Claude Fable, its immediate ban by the US government, and the implications for AI sovereignty.
- 5 (38:42) **Mistral and the Case for Sovereign Models** - The hosts discuss Mistral's $20B valuation raise and the broader push for sovereign AI models in Europe.
- 6 (44:11) **Benchmark's Miss on Model Providers** - The host asks the Benchmark partner about the firm's absence from early investments in frontier model companies.
- 7 (45:57) **Salesforce Acquires Finn (Intercom) for $3.6B** - The hosts celebrate the acquisition of Finn, a classic SaaS company that successfully transitioned to an AI-first, outcome-based model.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
AGENDA:
- 00:00 — SpaceX Completes the Largest IPO in History
- 03:45 — Elon Musk Adds a Warren Buffett Fortune in 24 Hours
- 20:45 — Anthropic's Claude Fable Launches Monday, Gets Banned by Thursday
- 25:00 — Washington Declares War on Frontier AI
- 39:00 — Europe's Sovereign AI Push Accelerates as Mistral Targets $20B
- 43:30 — Benchmark Admits Its Biggest Miss: Passing on the Model Labs
- 45:15 — Salesforce Buys Fin for $3.6B and Rewrites the SaaS Survival Playbook
- 1:02:00 — Adobe Beats, Raises, and Still Crashes as AI Fears Intensify
- 1:06:30 — Why Every Legacy SaaS Company Is Trapped in an AI Death Spiral
- 1:10:00 — The AI Acquisition Window Has Officially Closed
- 1:13:00 — Nvidia at 16x Earnings vs SaaS at 8x Cash Flow: Where Should Investors Be?
- 1:17:00 — The Great Rotation: Why Wall Street Is Abandoning Software for AI Infrastructure
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