WAR UPDATE: Military Insider Gives Terrifying Prediction & Reveals How Unprepared America Truly Is

July 20, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

WAR UPDATE: Military Insider Gives Terrifying Prediction & Reveals How Unprepared America Truly Is

A former British naval officer and defense strategist argues that the West has fundamentally misunderstood the nature of the war in Ukraine—and that this misunderstanding is leading Europe toward a conflict with Russia it cannot win. The guest, who served at senior levels of British defense and later spent 15 years in the energy sector, presents a detailed strategic assessment of Russia's actual military approach, the West's institutional failures, and the fragile energy situation that could trigger an economic crisis this autumn.

Russia's Strategy Is Not About Territory

The central error the West has made, according to the guest, is failing to understand what kind of war Russia is fighting. "This is, as far as Russia is concerned, an existential war," he says. When European leaders like Kaja Kallas call for Russia to be broken up, the Russian response becomes predictable. The guest outlines a five-phase Russian strategy that began not as an invasion of Ukraine—which would have required far more than 190,000 troops for a country the size of half of Europe—but as a military operation to support diplomacy. Phase one involved using force to back negotiations that were actually succeeding by March 2022, until Boris Johnson, "no doubt with Biden's support," persuaded Zelensky t

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What you'll learn

1 (00:04) **Introduction: Misreading the War** - The guest argues the West misunderstands Russia's motivations and strategy, viewing the war as a negotiation rather than an existential fight for Russia.
2 (02:04) **Russia's Five-Phase Strategy Defined** - The guest outlines a clear, phased Russian military strategy that explains their seemingly slow or defensive actions.
3 (09:17) **The West's Motive: Incompetence Over Malice** - The guest diagnoses the West's drive for war as a failure of strategic thinking, not a coherent plan.
4 (16:20) **Warning Sign: The "Coming War with Russia" Scenario** - The guest details a plausible scenario for a direct Russia-NATO war, starting with a Russian strike on European defense factories.
5 (20:32) **Warning Sign: Europe's Military Unpreparedness** - A detailed breakdown of why European militaries are incapable of fighting Russia conventionally.
6 (25:05) **Warning Sign: The Energy Doomsday** - The guest, an energy expert, explains how a war would cripple Europe through energy destruction.
7 (28:33) **The Economic Consequence: Depression** - The mathematical link between energy loss and GDP collapse.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

John Mearsheimer

Show Notes

Nihilistic western leaders have been pushing for decades to have a major war with Russia. Former Royal Navy commander Steve Jermy says they’re about to get that war, and lose badly.

(00:00) What Is Happening Between Russia and Ukraine? (09:21) Why Would the US and NATO Want a War With Russia? (15:32) The EU's Promotion of Foolish Leaders (20:17) Where the US Stands With Russia and Where We're Headed (43:39) Where Does the West Stand on Energy?

As a young naval aviator, Commodore Steve Jermy's first operational deployment was in the Falklands War flying from HMS Invincible. As a senior naval officer, his final operational deployment was in Afghanistan as Strategy Director in the British Embassy, Kabul. In between: at sea, he commanded 4 ships and a destroyer squadron; ashore, he served in 4 policy appointments in Britain’s Ministry of Defence and led British naval aviation as Commodore Fleet Air Arm. After leaving the navy, he worked for 15 years in the offshore energy sector. His qualifications include an MPhil from Cambridge University in International Relations, including International Economics, and he is the author of Strategy for Action: Using Force Wisely in the 21st Century. Having stepped down from the offshore energy sector, he now writes a Substack - https://stevejermy.substack.com - and is a regular YouTube interviewee on geopolitics, war, economics, energy, and their intersection. https://stevejermy.substack.com/p/principles-and-practice-of-air-defence

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