Jeffrey Sachs on the Real Origins of the Iran War and the Coming Economic Devastation

Jeffrey Sachs urges an immediate off-ramp from the escalating war with Iran, arguing that reopening the Strait of Hormuz would avert a regional conflict that could trigger worldwide economic collapse. He traces the war's origins to longstanding U.S. imperial ambitions, Israel's regional dominance strategy, and oil interests, rather than Iranian aggression or nuclear threats. Sachs, drawing on decades of direct engagement with Iran and historical analysis, emphasizes that escalation would destroy Gulf infrastructure, mirroring past oil shocks but far worse due to physical damage.

Fork in the Road: Off-Ramp or Catastrophe

The war, started February 28, has closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which flows 20% of global oil, 30% of fertilizers, and key commodities like petrochemicals and aluminum. This has already destabilized the world economy, with no time for prolonged negotiations. The off-ramp—simply reopening the strait—avoids bombing resumption, which Trump and Netanyahu threaten if Iran does not concede U.S. and Israeli objectives. Sachs dismisses those objectives as invalid: regime change, nuclear prevention, and regional control. Without the off-ramp, Iran would retaliate against unprotected Gulf desalination plants, oil fields, ports, and Israel, depleting anti-missile defenses. Within weeks, much regional infrastructure would be destroyed, leading to global calamity