Expert Audits the True Cost of the Iran War and What the Pentagon Is Hiding From You
October 23, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readThe Most Unpopular War in American History
The Iran war began on February 28, 2025, and according to polling by The Economist and YouGov, it started with net support of negative 13 percentage points — meaning more Americans opposed it than supported it from day one. This is unprecedented. Every other major US war since World War II, including the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, began with positive net support. By the time of this conversation, the Iran war had fallen to negative 35 net support, making it the most unpopular war in polling history. Even among the minority who still say it was the right decision, about half want it to end as quickly as possible.
The $1.1 Trillion Defense Budget and What It Buys
The enacted defense budget for fiscal year 2026 is $1.1 trillion, which includes both the base budget and additional military funding from the "Big Beautiful Bill" reconciliation package passed in July 2025. This is the largest military budget since 1945 — in inflation-adjusted dollars, the United States is now spending more on average per year on its military than it did during World War II from 1942 to 1945. The budget consumes more than half of all discretionary spending that Congress votes on each year.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:04) **Setting the Stage: The Unpopularity of the Iran War** - Stephen Semler joins to discuss the war's public perception and cost.
- 2 (06:36) **The $1.1 Trillion Defense Budget** - The conversation moves to the scale of the military budget and what it actually buys.
- 3 (11:30) **The Military-Industrial Feedback Loop** - Semler details how war profits are recycled into political influence.
- 4 (18:11) **A Socialized, State-Run Economy** - Semler describes the defense industry as a taxpayer-funded system that then lobbies those same taxpayers.
- 5 (24:03) **Whistleblower Insights from Inside the System** - Semler recounts his experience working as a lobbyist for the troubled Littoral Combat Ship (LCS).
- 6 (27:32) **The War's Stated Aims vs. Reality** - The discussion critiques the stated objectives of the Iran war.
- 7 (32:07) **The True Direct Cost of the War** - Semler explains his independent analysis of the war's direct costs.
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Show Notes
We’re spending more a year on the military in adjusted dollars than we did during World War II. What are we getting for it? And how much is going to Israel? Stephen Semler has the numbers.
(00:00) How Is the Iran War Viewed by the Public? (07:34) The Growing "War" Budget (29:50) What Are the Costs of This War? (39:20) Why Hasn't the Pentagon Ever Passed an Audit? (59:10) How Do We Get the Pentagon Under Control?
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