The Houthis Are Winning & AI Is Making Them More Dangerous | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS
September 14, 2026
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5 min readThe Houthis Are Winning & AI Is Making Them More Dangerous
The Houthis have seized Perim Island and other strategic islands in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, taken the last major port of Mocha, and now control the entire Yemeni coastline along the Red Sea—roughly 22,400 square kilometers of lowland territory they had lost years ago. At the same time, the Saudi East-West Pipeline was taken offline by strikes from Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, and the US Navy is now offering shipping companies scheduled windows for escorted passage through the Strait of Hormuz rather than guaranteeing free transit. Oil prices climbed above $100 a barrel in after-hours trading. And a new report from Anthropic revealed that the Houthis used the company's Claude AI tool to design, simulate, and flight-test multi-stage ballistic missiles, including hypersonic glide variants.
How the Houthis Took the Coast—and Why Nobody Is Stopping Them
The Houthis have grown from roughly 20,000 to 30,000 fighters in 2015 to an estimated 300,000 to 350,000 armed fighters today. They have resisted the best efforts of the US, UK, Israel, and Saudi Arabia to prevent them from interfering with Red Sea shipping. But the recent territorial gains are less about Houthi strength than about the collapse of the coalition that once opposed them.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:31) **Episode Introduction & News Roundup** - Hosts Dave, Jonathan Hackett, and Andy Milburn set the table for a dizzying week of geopolitics.
- 2 (06:57) **Houthi Territorial Gains on the Red Sea Coast** - The Houthis have seized Perim Island and other key islands in the Bab el-Mandeb, as well as significant coastal terrain including the last port of Mocha.
- 3 (09:49) **The Collapse of the Anti-Houthi Coalition** - The fragmented opposition forces (Saudi-backed NRF vs. Emirati-backed STC) have been unable to form a coherent defense, allowing the Houthis to steamroll the coastline.
- 4 (19:42) **Strategic Implications of the Houthi Advance** - Owning the coastline gives the Houthis cheap, close-range access to a major shipping lane, allowing them to impose a de facto blockade without fully closing the strait.
- 5 (24:22) **The Naval Force Gap in the Bab el-Mandeb** - The Combined Maritime Task Force (CMF) exists for counter-piracy, but its command and control is out of Bahrain, which has taken recent hits, and the US has decommissioned its mine-sweeping vessels.
- 6 (28:18) **A Coordinated Squeeze on Saudi Arabia** - The Houthi seizure of the coastline coincides with the Iraqi militia attack on the East-West pipeline, cutting off both the sea and land bypass routes for Saudi oil exports.
- 7 (31:33) **The Limits of Air Power and the Mosaic Doctrine** - The Saudi air campaign has flown over 100 sorties in 48 hours, but without a viable ground force or coherent naval support, it cannot retake the coast.
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Show Notes
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00:00 – Start
05:34 – Houthis Advance Toward the Bab al-Mandab
07:02 – Why the U.S. Isn’t Backing Saudi Arabia the Same Way
09:02 – Hormuz, Oil Exports & Saudi Arabia’s Growing Problems
10:15 – How the Anti-Houthi Coalition Fell Apart
12:30 – Why the Houthis See an Opening Right Now
14:29 – The Houthis Are More Capable Than People Think
17:09 – From 30,000 Fighters to 300,000+
18:23 – What Control of the Bab al-Mandab Gives the Houthis
19:41 – Who Could Actually Reopen the Strait?
22:35 – Saudi Arabia’s Oil Bypasses Are Being Squeezed
24:16 – Is This a Coordinated Iranian Campaign?
27:11 – Why Airstrikes Alone Won’t Solve the Houthi Problem
30:25 – Are Gulf States Turning Toward Iran Instead of Washington?
31:55 – MBS Asks Trump for U.S. Strikes on the Houthis
35:16 – Is Yemen Heading Toward Permanent Partition?
36:00 – Houthis Used Claude to Develop Ballistic Missiles
38:26 – China’s Role in Armi
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