AI Summary
5 min readOn a quiet road in the English village of Welford, a woman who had lived there for 30 years noticed something wrong: three black vans were staging at 12:40 in the morning. "We don't have vans in our village," she told police. That call stopped what British authorities and U.S. intelligence assess was an Iranian-backed plot to attack RAF Fairford, the base that houses B-1B Lancers and B-52s used in strikes against Iran. Five men were arrested, large black drums were removed from the vans for examination, and 80 houses were evacuated. The UK prime minister canceled all his meetings. The episode is a window into how the war with Iran is being fought far beyond the Strait of Hormuz — through proxies, deniable operations, and the kind of luck that no intelligence service can manufacture.
The RAF Fairford Plot: What Happened and What It Means
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:01) **Episode Kickoff & Breaking Story: RAF Fairford Plot** - Hosts introduce the major breaking news: five men arrested near RAF Fairford, a US airbase in the UK that houses B-1B and B-52 bombers used for operations in Iran.
- 2 (02:37) **Suspect Attribution: Iran as the Primary Suspect** - The panel discusses the strong suspicion that Iran is behind the plot, citing MO and intelligence hints, but stresses no official confirmation has been made.
- 3 (04:11) **Geopolitical Implications of an Iranian Plot** - The group explores how an Iranian-directed attack could reshape the conflict, including pressure on President Trump to strike Iran and the potential reaction within Europe.
- 4 (05:13) **The "Little Old Lady" Tip: See Something, Say Something** - Hosts discuss the possibility that a local resident's report of suspicious vans, not intelligence, was the key to foiling the plot.
- 5 (07:24) **Indicators and Warnings: IRGC's July Warning** - The panel examines prior indicators, including a specific IRGC warning about RAF Fairford in July, as evidence that this plot was likely Iranian-directed.
- 6 (09:08) **Historical Context: US Bases in the UK and Public Reaction** - Andy Milburn provides historical perspective on the long-standing US presence in the UK and how the British public typically reacts to attacks on their soil.
- 7 (11:38) **Target Analysis: What Were the Vans Trying to Hit?** - The hosts speculate on the intended target, considering whether the attackers planned to breach the base to strike aircraft or cause mass casualties.
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Show Notes
We break down the suspected plot near RAF Fairford, the growing use of criminal proxies for covert action, and what the incident could mean if investigators ultimately tie it to Iran. We also discuss the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, China’s role in sustaining Iran economically, pressure on Gulf allies, and whether Washington has lost sight of the nuclear issue.
Support the show on Patreon:⬇️
https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse
Jack's news outlet:⬇️
https://thehighside.substack.com/
Find Jon Hackett here:⬇️
Jon's Twitter:
https://x.com/jonathanhackett
Jon's LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett
Jon's books:
https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B0C5L659N5?ccs_id=e11a2062-f8d3-498e-bfd7-7d2f3869caf6
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett
Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett
Check out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️
Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475
Spotify:
https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQ
Youtube:
https://www.youtube.com/@UCd0Hq6QFk8CoTu5j-VU0Ong
Find Mick Mulroy here:
Fogbow ⬇️
https://fogbow.com/
Lobo Institute ⬇️
https://www.loboinstitute.org/
Twitter ⬇️
https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA
LinkedIn ⬇️
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/
Whitefish security summit ⬇️
https://whitefishsecuritysummit.com
Find Marc P here:
https://x.com/Mpolymer
Find Andy Milburn here:
Twitter ⬇️
https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8
LinkedIn ⬇️
https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023
Substack ⬇️
https://amilburn.substack.com/
Andy’s book ⬇️
https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations
00:00 – Start
00:37 – Five Men Arrested Near RAF Fairford
02:17 – Was Iran Behind the Alleged Plot?
05:40 – How a Local Tip May Have Stopped the Attack
07:29 – IRGC Warnings About RAF Fairford
12:35 – What Was the Intended Target?
17:17 – How Iran Recruits Criminal Proxies for Covert Operations
21:07 – The Gig Economy of Espionage & Sabotage
23:56 – Iran, Hormuz & the Latest Ceasefire Maneuvering
28:01 – China Is the Key to Economic Pressure on Iran
32:48 – What Could the U.S. Offer China in Return?
39:20 – Why Washington Is Holding Back on Tougher China Sanctions
42:53 – Iran & the U.S. Settle Into a Dangerous Stalemate
47:37 – Can the U.S. Still Protect Its Gulf Allies?
50:01 – Iran’s Internal Crackdown & the Cost of the War
53:07 – What This War Is Teaching the U.S. About Cheap Weapons
55:13 – Has Washington Lost Sight of the Nuclear Issue?
59:18 – What to Watch Next in Iran, Yemen & the Gulf
Become a supporter of this podcas
Support the show on Patreon:⬇️
https://www.patreon.com/TheTeamHouse
Jack's news outlet:⬇️
https://thehighside.substack.com/
Find Jon Hackett here:⬇️
Jon's Twitter:
https://x.com/jonathanhackett
Jon's LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett
Jon's books:
https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B0C5L659N5?ccs_id=e11a2062-f8d3-498e-bfd7-7d2f3869caf6
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett
Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett
Check out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️
Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475
Spotify:
https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQ
Youtube:
https://www.youtube.com/@UCd0Hq6QFk8CoTu5j-VU0Ong
Find Mick Mulroy here:
Fogbow ⬇️
https://fogbow.com/
Lobo Institute ⬇️
https://www.loboinstitute.org/
Twitter ⬇️
https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA
LinkedIn ⬇️
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/
Whitefish security summit ⬇️
https://whitefishsecuritysummit.com
Find Marc P here:
https://x.com/Mpolymer
Find Andy Milburn here:
Twitter ⬇️
https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8
LinkedIn ⬇️
https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023
Substack ⬇️
https://amilburn.substack.com/
Andy’s book ⬇️
https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations
00:00 – Start
00:37 – Five Men Arrested Near RAF Fairford
02:17 – Was Iran Behind the Alleged Plot?
05:40 – How a Local Tip May Have Stopped the Attack
07:29 – IRGC Warnings About RAF Fairford
12:35 – What Was the Intended Target?
17:17 – How Iran Recruits Criminal Proxies for Covert Operations
21:07 – The Gig Economy of Espionage & Sabotage
23:56 – Iran, Hormuz & the Latest Ceasefire Maneuvering
28:01 – China Is the Key to Economic Pressure on Iran
32:48 – What Could the U.S. Offer China in Return?
39:20 – Why Washington Is Holding Back on Tougher China Sanctions
42:53 – Iran & the U.S. Settle Into a Dangerous Stalemate
47:37 – Can the U.S. Still Protect Its Gulf Allies?
50:01 – Iran’s Internal Crackdown & the Cost of the War
53:07 – What This War Is Teaching the U.S. About Cheap Weapons
55:13 – Has Washington Lost Sight of the Nuclear Issue?
59:18 – What to Watch Next in Iran, Yemen & the Gulf
Become a supporter of this podcas
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