AI Summary
5 min readIran's Ceasefire Deadline Looms as Tehran Raises Its Demands
The Team House assembled on a Sunday with Dimitri absent due to illness, leaving Jack Murphy, Mick Mulroy, Nick, Mark, and Jonathan to cover a packed geopolitical agenda. The dominant thread: the Iran ceasefire is set to expire within a week, and the panel sees little reason for optimism. But the episode also covered a surprising new CIA task force on Cuba, a ranking of European intelligence services, and the quiet persistence of the Ukraine war.
The Strait of Hormuz Has Become Iran's Leverage
The panel agreed that the status quo in the Iran standoff has shifted fundamentally. Iran is no longer just trying to control the Strait of Hormuz for security reasons — it is now trying to monetize it. Jonathan reported that Tehran has floated demands for up to seven percent of the value of cargo passing through the strait. For energy alone, that would mean roughly $50 billion annually; for all cargo, the figure approaches $100 billion. "Who's paying it? Everybody," one panelist noted. "It's not the United States. It's a tax on the world."
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What you'll learn
- 1 Iran War Update & Is Cuba Really Next? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS
- 2 (01:28) **Episode Opening & Iran Ceasefire Status** - Host Jack Murphy introduces the panel (Mick Mulroy, Mark, Jonathan) and sets the agenda: the Iran ceasefire ending in a week, a ranking of European intelligence services, and the CIA's new Cuba task force.
- 3 (02:57) **Trump's Iran Strategy: Status Quo with Economic Squeeze** - The panel analyzes Trump's apparent decision to maintain the status quo and avoid military confrontation with Iran.
- 4 (04:15) **Iranian Proxy Activity and Regime Internal Divisions** - Jonathan details the Houthis testing Saudi air defenses and Iraqi Shia militia groups making early-stage movements outside their baseline.
- 5 (07:32) **Iran's Militarization of the Strait of Hormuz** - The panel explains how Iran is dead-set on controlling and monetizing the Strait of Hormuz.
- 6 (09:50) **US Precision Munitions Shortage and Strategic Planning Failures** - Mick presses the panel on why the US military failed to plan for a long-drawn-out conflict with Iran despite known shortages of precision weapons.
- 7 (14:06) **Iran's Escalating Demands and GCC Fragmentation** - Mark observes that Iran's demands keep going up because they don't believe the US will use force to reopen and keep open the Strait of Hormuz.
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Guests on this episode
Show Notes
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Find Jon Hackett here:⬇️
Jon's Twitter:
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Check out Mick's new podcast here:⬇️
Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/pub-and-porch-applied-stoicism/id1836955475
Spotify:
https://open.spotify.com/show/1k3QPmkAMwnGJxMLDwUSSd?si=n6piIu8XRcag1Z0K43A3bQ
Youtube:
https://www.youtube.com/@UCd0Hq6QFk8CoTu5j-VU0Ong
Find Mick Mulroy here:
Fogbow ⬇️
https://fogbow.com/
Lobo Institute ⬇️
https://www.loboinstitute.org/
Twitter ⬇️
https://x.com/mickmulroy?s=21&t=-Ze3F_Ix2vlJ18KFvORTCA
LinkedIn ⬇️
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-patrick-mulroy-31198b52/
Whitefish security summit ⬇️
https://whitefishsecuritysummit.com
Find Marc P here:
https://x.com/Mpolymer
Find Andy Milburn here:
Twitter ⬇️
https://twitter.com/i/flow/login?redirect_after_login=%2Fandymilburn8
LinkedIn ⬇️
https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewmilburn2023
Substack ⬇️
https://amilburn.substack.com/
Andy’s book ⬇️
https://www.amazon.com/When-Tempest-Gathers-Mogadishu-Operations
"Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio"
00:00 - Start
01:23 - Iran Negotiations and the End of the Ceasefire
06:19 - Iran’s Control of the Strait of Hormuz
08:04 - America’s Munitions Shortage and War Planning
13:03 - Iran Is Becoming More Emboldened
17:45 - Can the U.S. Still Fight Two Wars at Once?
19:46 - Armed Resistance and Insurgent Groups Inside Iran
25:22 - CIA Covert Action and Arming Iran’s Opposition
26:22 - How the CIA and Special Forces Used Kurdish Militias in Iraq
30:49 - Mossad Leadership Purge After the Iran War
33:18 - Ranking Europe’s Best Intelligence Services
34:12 - British and French Intelligence Operations
40:00 - CIA Creates a New Cuba Task Force
44:25 - Cuba’s Intelligence Service vs. the CIA
48:38 - Ukraine Is Stopping the Russian Advance
51:25 - Final Thoughts
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