Can the U.S. Win a War in the Pacific Against China? | EYES ON GEOPOLITICS

July 30, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The Chinese military is building the kind of weapon systems designed for a first strike—fixed, multi-missile silos that are "use or lose it" assets. Combined with a massive merchant marine that can be pressed into amphibious service and a shipbuilding industry that dwarfs America's, the PLA is preparing for a conflict where it might not just deter U.S. intervention but survive a protracted war. The U.S., meanwhile, has not fought a peer navy since World War II, and its bases in the Western Pacific remain largely unhardened.

The Asymmetric Logic of a Taiwan Invasion

China's military buildup is not a mirror of U.S. power projection. Because Taiwan is only 100 miles from the mainland, Beijing does not need the kind of large, long-range amphibious assault ships the U.S. Navy relies on. Instead, China's "meat and potatoes" for a potential invasion is its enormous state-owned merchant marine—ferries, landing craft, and civilian vessels built to national defense standards. These are practiced in exercises and can shuttle troops and equipment across the strait far more efficiently than a 40,000-ton assault ship designed for months-long deployments.

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What you'll learn

1 Timestamped Outline
2 (00:00) **Episode Introduction & Guest Background** - Hosts welcome Tom Shugart, former Navy submariner and CNAS senior fellow focused on US-China military balance
3 (02:54) **Current State of US-China Tensions** - Tom argues that while media attention has shifted, Chinese aggression continues unabated in the Pacific
4 (05:00) **China's Asymmetric Military Strategy** - China is not matching the US tank-for-tank but building tailored capabilities for a Taiwan invasion
5 (08:15) **Combat Experience Question** - Tom challenges the assumption that China's lack of recent combat experience is a decisive disadvantage
6 (12:00) **Why China Hasn't Invaded Yet** - Tom explains the military calculus behind the timing
7 (16:35) **US Political Ambiguity on Taiwan Defense** - Tom analyzes the uncertain American commitment

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

We sit down with former U.S. Navy submariner and defense analyst Thomas Shugart to examine the rapidly shifting military balance between the United States and China, from Taiwan invasion planning and shipbuilding to missile stockpiles and the future of Indo-Pacific deterrence. We also explore whether America is prepared for a prolonged conflict with China and why Beijing may be far closer to that goal than many realize.
Find Tom here:
https://x.com/tshugart3?lang=en
https://www.linkedin.com/in/thomas-shugart-703079114
https://thomasshugart.substack.com/
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https://a.co/d/0gywUGvn
Find Jon Hackett here:⬇️
Jon's Twitter:
https://x.com/jonathanhackett
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https://www.linkedin.com/in/thejonathanhackett
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Twitter: https://x.com/jonathanhackett
"Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio"
00:00 Start
01:50 China's Military Pressure Is Increasing, Not Slowing
03:38 Why the PLA Is Building a Different Military Than America's
07:18 Does China's Lack of Combat Experience Matter?
10:41 Why Hasn't China Invaded Taiwan Yet?
13:58 Would the U.S. Actually Defend Taiwan?
17:32 Can Diplomacy Reduce the Risk of War?
20:21 The First & Second Island Chains Explained
25:27 China's Special Operations and Fifth Column Threat Inside Taiwan
28:04 Rare Earth Minerals, Seabed Mining & Military-Civil Fusion
30:58 America's Shipbuilding Problem in a Long War
34:01 China's Military Doctrine and "Active Defense"
39:04 Can the Pentagon Innovate Fast Enough?
43:15 China's Allies, Overseas Bases & Global Logistics
48:29 Missile Stockpiles, Air Defenses & Preparing for a Pacific War

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