Deep Dive: What Happens if OpenAI Fails?

May 2, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

OpenAI has positioned itself as the gravitational center of the AI economy through explosive growth and massive infrastructure deals, but recent reports of missed targets and rising competition have sparked questions about its stability and the wider fallout if it falters.

OpenAI's Rapid Ascent and Industry Influence

ChatGPT launched on November 30, 2022, reaching 100 million users in two months—faster than TikTok or Instagram. By now, it has over 920 million weekly users. Revenue followed: $2 billion for all of 2023, now $2 billion monthly. This drew a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, surpassing companies like JPMorgan or ExxonMobil in under four years.

To fuel growth, OpenAI committed $600 billion to infrastructure, securing chips from Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom, plus data center deals with Oracle and CoreWeave. Announcements boosted partners' stocks—billions added to Oracle, AMD, and Broadcom valuations—tying their fortunes to OpenAI's success.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:00) **Intro to OpenAI's Rough Patch** - Sets up OpenAI's shift from AI leader to facing growth misses, internal disputes, and competition from Anthropic/Google
2 (00:47) **OpenAI's Explosive Growth** - Details ChatGPT launch in Nov 2022, 920M weekly users, $2B/month revenue, $122B funding at $852B valuation
3 (01:59) **Massive Infrastructure Deals** - OpenAI commits $600B to Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave, AMD, Broadcom for compute/data centers
4 (03:05) **Rise of Anthropic (Claude)** - Ex-OpenAI founders launch Claude, wins enterprise coding market with 1K+ $1M/year customers
5 (04:33) **Anthropic's Revenue Surge** - Annualized $30B run rate (up from $1B in 15 months), possibly topping OpenAI's $25B
6 (05:22) **Google Gemini's Threat** - Grows to 750M monthly users; subsidized by $400B revenue, 1B+ existing users, multi-monetization (ads/subscriptions/cloud)
7 (06:00) **OpenAI User Growth Slows** - Monthly users up 168% in Jan to 78% in Apr; app downloads +14% YoY; misses 1B weekly user goal

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

In today's deep dive, Zaid breaks down what's going on at OpenAI. From missed revenue targets and internal tensions between Sam Altman and his CFO, to rising competition from Anthropic and Google that's eating into ChatGPT's dominance. Zaid explores OpenAI's business model problem, the company's pivot to advertising, and what it all means for the AI trade and whether OpenAI is actually ready to go public.