AI Summary
5 min readThe GLP-1 Pivot That Saved Hims
In February 2025, Hims & Hers was flying high. The company had just aired a provocative Super Bowl ad, its app hit number two in the health category on the App Store, and the stock was trading at all-time highs of $69. Two weeks later, the FDA announced that semaglutide—the active ingredient in Ozempic—was no longer on the shortage list. Hims stock dropped 25% in a single day. The legal justification for selling their cheaper compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugs had just evaporated. What followed over the next twelve months was a wild ride through regulatory threats, a lawsuit from Novo Nordisk, a stock that lost half its value, and then an unexpected partnership that flipped the entire narrative.
The Compounding Loophole That Built a Business
Hims was founded in 2017 as an online-native pharmacy during the telehealth boom, focusing on the awkward healthcare stuff—hair loss, ED, skincare. The model was sleek: everything accessible through an app, medications shipped to your door. Revenue jumped from $26 million in 2018 to $272 million by 2021, the year the company went public. But 2024 was the pivotal year, when Hims moved into GLP-1 weight loss drugs.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:00) **Introduction: HIMS and the GLP-1 Roller Coaster** - The episode sets up the story of HIMS, a company whose stock has swung wildly due to Super Bowl ads, legal fights, and copycat weight-loss drugs.
- 2 (00:37) **Backstory: HIMS's Founding and Early Success** - HIMS was founded in 2017 as an online-native pharmacy during the telehealth boom, focusing on awkward healthcare issues like hair loss, ED, and skincare.
- 3 (01:16) **The GLP-1 Opportunity: Entering the Weight Loss Market** - In 2024, HIMS moved into the GLP-1 weight loss category, capitalizing on the FDA shortage of semaglutide (Ozempic) that began in mid-2022.
- 4 (02:59) **The Turning Point: FDA Shortage Ends and Legal Threats Begin** - Two weeks after HIMS's Super Bowl ad, the FDA removed semaglutide from the shortage list, threatening the legal basis for HIMS's compounded GLP-1s.
- 5 (05:06) **The Lawsuit and the Breakthrough** - Novo Nordisk sued HIMS on February 9th for patent infringement and unlawful promotion of compounded drugs, sending the stock down 50% from its peak.
- 6 (07:14) **The Bull Case: Strong Fundamentals and Expansion** - HIMS's underlying business remains solid, with $2.35 billion in revenue in 2025 (up from $1.5 billion) and 2.5 million subscribers.
- 7 (09:27) **The Bear Case: Revenue, Margin, and Partnership Risks** - The Novo Nordisk partnership changes HIMS's business model: instead of booking full revenue from compounded drugs (~$200/month), HIMS will now only book a net cut from branded drug sales, potentially lowering top-line revenue.
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Guests on this episode
Show Notes
In this deep dive, Zaid breaks down how Hims became one of the hottest stocks in the market during the GLP-1 boom, and why the company suddenly found itself in the middle of an FDA crackdown and a legal fight with Novo Nordisk. He also dives into the bull case, the bear case, and whether Hims can actually build a lasting digital healthcare business from here.
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