What Comes After the Iran War? — with Rep. Jim Himes
July 2, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readWhat Comes After the Iran War? — with Rep. Jim Himes
The U.S. signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran two weeks ago, then spent the weekend trading direct strikes. Iran hit bases in Bahrain and Kuwait; the U.S. bombed Iranian military targets. President Trump threatened that Iran "will no longer exist" if the strikes continue. Representative Jim Himes, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, calls the MOU "a catastrophe" that gives Iran "orders of magnitude more money" than the 2015 Obama deal. But he adds a crucial caveat: "It's better than going back to war."
Why the U.S. lost its leverage
Himes argues the administration entered negotiations with almost no cards to play. The Iranians now know two things they didn't know a year ago: the regime can survive the worst the U.S. can throw at it, and it can paralyze the global economy simply by flying drones over the Strait of Hormuz. They don't need a navy. They don't need to sink a tanker. They just need to fly a drone into one cargo ship, and insurers like Lloyd's of London will refuse to cover any vessel going near the strait. The U.S. has one remaining card—returning to full-scale war—but the Iranians know that's a bluff. They understand the president's political imperatives and that Americans will not tolerate body bags arriving at Dover Air Force Base or gasoline prices spiking again.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:00) **Episode Intro & Cannes Observations** - Scott Galloway shares takeaways from the Cannes Lions festival, including the rise of creators, AI becoming "plumbing," and the sports/gambling boom.
- 2 (08:18) **State of Play: The Iran War & MOU** - Himes describes the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding as a "catastrophe" that empowers the regime and gives it more money than the Obama deal.
- 3 (10:03) **Why the U.S. Has No Leverage** - Himes explains that Iran now knows it can survive the worst the U.S. can throw at it and can impact the global economy by threatening the Strait of Hormuz.
- 4 (12:59) **Intelligence Failure or Leadership Failure?** - Himes argues the Iran war was not an intelligence failure but a failure of leadership, similar to the Iraq WMD case.
- 5 (15:45) **U.S.-Israeli Relations & Netanyahu's Role** - Himes discusses how Netanyahu, a "wily" leader, likely pushed Trump toward war by appealing to his ego.
- 6 (19:10) **What Happens Next: The MOU, Strait of Hormuz, and Nuclear Risk** - Himes predicts a "crappy deal" in the medium term, but warns Iran will race for a nuclear weapon to maintain leverage.
- 7 (25:19) **Israel's Red Line on a Nuclear Iran** - Himes states Israel will do everything to prevent a nuclear Iran, but questions their ability to do so.
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Show Notes
Scott Galloway speaks with Congressman Jim Himes, the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, to discuss the fragile ceasefire with Iran, whether the U.S. has lost leverage in the Middle East, the future of Ukraine, and what Democrats need to offer beyond opposition to Trump.
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