The Strait of Hormuz Is Blocked, and the Global Economy Is Already Breaking

On day ten of the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut down — a 98 percent reduction in traffic, meaning roughly 15 million barrels of oil per day are not getting out. That is 150 million barrels total so far. Another 4 million barrels per day of crude production have been physically shut in, and even if the Strait reopened tomorrow, that capacity would not return for at least 60 days. On the natural gas side, 20 percent of global LNG has been blocked. As Peter Zeihan puts it, "we're already in a global recessionary environment" — and that is before considering any further escalation.

A War Without Defined Goals

The fundamental problem, Zeihan argues, is that nobody knows what the administration is trying to accomplish. The stated objectives have shifted roughly every 36 hours since the campaign began. At various points, Donald Trump has said he wants to hand-pick Iran's next leader and has demanded unconditional surrender. Both are "wildly unrealistic options unless you have a million troops in the country and have physically crushed dissent in a way that we were unable to do in Iraq and Afghanistan or Vietnam or Korea."