Why Gold Is Expected to Rise to Record Highs

September 4, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

Gold peaked in January, pulled back 20%, and then rallied again in August. Many market participants are wondering whether the metal has already seen its best levels. Tony Kim, global head of metals trading at Goldman Sachs, argues that the recent weakness is not the end of the bull market but "an elongated pause." He expects the uptrend to resume and new highs to follow.

Why the Pause, Not the Peak

Kim identifies two simultaneous factors that have created the current lull. The first is the nomination and expected confirmation of a new Fed chair, which has the market trying to decipher the official's "reaction function and policy tilt" within the context of the Trump administration's views on monetary policy. The second is the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. The disruption in energy markets from the Strait of Hormuz has a direct impact on inflation and policy response, but it also affects the reserve accumulation of energy-exporting nations. Historically, those reserves would "recycle some amount into precious metals markets," but that flow has been disturbed. The result has been a "huge reduction of positioning" across the franchise, with the notable exception of ongoing central bank accumulation.

The Breakdown of Old Correlations

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What you'll learn

1 (00:20) **Gold’s Current Position: Peak or Pause?** - Tony Kim explains why he believes the bull market in gold is not over.
2 (02:19) **The Debasement Thesis vs. Higher Rates** - Tony addresses the apparent contradiction of rising gold prices in a higher-rate environment.
3 (04:08) **Are Traditional Correlations Breaking Down?** - Chris Hussey asks if investors are adjusting their playbooks based on recent market behavior.
4 (05:19) **The Structural Shift in Central Bank Demand** - Tony details the fundamental change in the gold market's supply-demand dynamics.
5 (06:16) **Asia Demand Under Pressure from the Energy Crisis** - Chris drills down on the impact of the Iran conflict on Asian demand drivers.
6 (07:37) **The Silver Market: A Higher-Beta, Retail-Driven Play** - Chris asks about silver’s extreme volatility and its relationship to gold.
7 (09:15) **The Trade: Bullish on Gold with a Specific Entry Level** - Tony gives his actionable recommendation for positioning in gold.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Gold set a record high in January, but uncertainty about US interest rates and disruption from the Iran war have led to an “elongated pause” in the rally, according to Tony Kim, global head of Metals Trading in Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities. Ultimately, Kim expects strong central bank demand for the yellow metal to help drive gold to new highs, he says on The Markets podcast. Kim also discusses whether fiscal sustainability concerns could spur a rotation into gold, how reduced investment demand from Asia is impacting gold markets, and why silver has been volatile in 2026.

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.

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