What Is the Outlook for Diesel and Gasoline Supplies?

August 28, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

What Is the Outlook for Diesel and Gasoline Supplies?

The Hormuz Strait has now been closed for six straight months, yet commodity markets have not broken. Nittin Gendal, who heads global commodities at Goldman Sachs, finds this resilience surprising—but not as surprising as the length of the conflict itself. "Several things have surprised me," he says. "First, just the length of the war. But it shouldn't be surprising given what's happening in Europe, where we are at a four-and-a-half-year point." The market has found ways to source supplies and absorb what he calls "an epically major disruption" while keeping prices within a tolerable range. The question is whether that resilience can hold.

Inventories, Demand Windows, and the Product Market Squeeze

Crude oil inventories have fallen to levels not normally seen, which would normally signal a breaking point. But Gendal draws a distinction between crude and refined products. Two months ago, heading into the highest demand window of summer, he would have said yes—we were at risk. Now that the summer demand window is ending, crude oil looks manageable for the next few months. Products are a different story.

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What you'll learn

1 (00:20) **Breaking Point Question - Hormuz Closure's Surprising Resilience** - The host asks if six months of Hormuz closure has surprised the guest.
2 (01:18) **Inventory Concerns and the Refining Bottleneck** - The host asks about falling oil inventories and whether a breaking point is imminent.
3 (02:35) **China's Demand Destruction and Structural Shift** - The host explores whether China can absorb more demand destruction.
4 (03:50) **European Natural Gas Risk and the Winter Weather Wildcard** - The host asks about the risk to European gas supplies if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
5 (05:45) **The Trade and Forward Outlook** - The host asks for a summary of the key trading themes.
6 Standout Quotes
7 (01:37) "If you've asked me that question two months ago, my answer would have been absolutely yes. We were heading into the highest demand window... Now we are kind of getting out of the demand window and we were fine in the summer window. So especially for crude oil, I don't think will break in the next few months. Products might be a different story."

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

Energy markets have been surprisingly resilient amid the disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, there are few signs of relief in markets for refined products such as diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel, says Nitin Jindal, head of Global Commodities in Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities, on The Markets podcast. Jindal also discusses China’s remarkable adjustment to the disruption in energy supplies and the outlook for natural gas prices in Europe as winter approaches.

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Filmed on August 26, 2026

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