SpaceX Stock Rockets After Lockup Ends Because...

When SpaceX’s first lockup period expired, many expected the stock to crater as early investors and employees finally got a chance to sell. Instead, the stock rocketed up nearly 16% in a single session. The host of The John Johnston Lounge walks through why that happened, what it says about Elon Musk’s narrative machine, and why he thinks the underlying business still doesn’t justify a multi-trillion-dollar valuation.

The Lockup Surprise and the “Buy the News” Effect

The conventional wisdom was that the end of SpaceX’s lockup—which freed a large chunk of shares owned by early investors and employees—would trigger a wave of selling. The stock had already fallen more than 50% from its post-IPO peak of roughly $225, bottoming out around $104. But the opposite happened. The host notes the stock jumped 15.83% in one session and 19.15% over five days, though it remains 17.3% below the IPO price of $135.

The explanation, he suggests, is a classic “buy the news” event: the selling that people feared had already happened in the weeks before the lockup ended. The actual expiration removed the overhang, and the stock rebounded. But he remains skeptical about who is buying. “Is it big money? Who knows? Retail investors? I don’t know,” he says, pointing to the lack of transparency around the stock’s trading dynamics.

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