AI Summary
5 min readNew Zealand’s housing market has moved past a correction into what the host of this episode calls a crash—and the question is whether Australia is next. Drawing on recent data from CoreLogic, local media reports, and his own observations from years living in both countries, the host argues that the same forces that drove New Zealand’s downturn—rapid price declines, rising losses for sellers, a glut of unsold homes, and government policy changes—are now emerging in Australia. The episode focuses on whether Australia’s larger, more resilient market will follow the same trajectory or whether this time really is different.
The New Zealand crash in numbers
The host opens with hard data to establish that New Zealand’s downturn is not a soft landing. According to CoreLogic, 13% of sellers who sold between April and June took a loss—the highest share in 14 years. That figure likely understates the real pain, because it does not account for inflation, maintenance costs, insurance, rates, or agent fees. The average loss in Auckland and Wellington was around NZ$85,000, while the national average was NZ$60,000. Sellers who did manage to make a profit had owned their homes for more than ten years on average, meaning they effectively skipped the recent boom-and-bust cycle. The host notes that a glut of homes is sitting on the market, and prices are still falling—not plateauing, as some
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:00) **Introduction: Is the Housing Crash Spreading from New Zealand to Australia?** - JJ frames the episode around whether New Zealand's deepening housing crash is a warning for Australia and other markets.
- 2 (01:48) **New Zealand Evidence: Record Losses and a Glut of Unsold Homes** - Data shows Kiwi homeowners are selling at a loss at the highest rate in 14 years.
- 3 (05:37) **Townhouse Crash and Rising Unemployment** - Two related pressures: a glut of townhouses is crashing in price, and unemployment has hit an 11-year high.
- 4 (07:33) **Political Spin: Affordability Improves, But Investors Are Fleeing** - A popular right-wing talk show host claims New Zealand's market is stabilizing and blames Labour government policies for Australia's mess.
- 5 (09:48) **Australia's Downturn Broadens Beyond Sydney and Melbourne** - The Australian housing downturn is no longer confined to major cities, with Brisbane and Adelaide now recording declines.
- 6 (11:04) **"This Time is Different": Could Australia's Fall Be the Big One?** - An economist suggests the 40-year property supercycle in Australia may finally be ending.
- 7 (13:36) **Investors Pull Out as Downturn Deepens** - Auctions are disappearing, replaced by "price by negotiation," and property tax changes are projected to slash $1.3 trillion from Australian wealth.
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Show Notes
John Johnston (JJ) breaks down the property market bust that’s been happening in New Zealand, and whether it could now be spreading to Australia, and beyond.
Related epsiode:
New Zealand’s Housing Market Crash: A Warning To The World https://open.spotify.com/episode/7uuZ23kRqtEGjAZG9A8VL7
Referenced video clips:
People selling up now are losing more on their properties than you think | Stuff NZ https://youtu.be/YEj8Zin9M7A
Unemployment hits 11-year high – with Bernard Hickey | The Spinoff https://youtu.be/2bO1eCmk_-o
Mike's Minute: Our housing market is smashing Australia's | Newstalk ZB https://youtu.be/ygicPStGL_0
housing market, housing market crash, australia housing, new zealand housing, property market, real estate, real estate crash, australia property, new zealand property, john johnston
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Disclaimer: I am not a financial adviser and nothing in this content is financial advice. This content is for general education and entertainment purposes only. Do your own analysis and seek professional financial advice before making any investment decision.
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