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5 min readIn the latest round of PISA tests—the OECD's triennial assessment of 15-year-olds in maths, science, and reading—the results are worse than expected. The average scores across rich countries have fallen sharply again, on top of declines already measured during the pandemic. The cumulative effect, according to Mark Johnson, a senior editor at The Economist, is that "15-year-olds today in maths and reading are scoring at levels that you might have associated with a 14-year-old ten years ago." That is not a small blip. It is a sustained erosion of cognitive skill at an age that matters for future earnings, health, and national productivity.
What the PISA tests actually measure
The PISA tests are not simple quizzes about memorised facts. They are designed to assess whether students can apply what they know to real-world problems—numerical ability and verbal reasoning, not just recall. Asian countries such as Singapore, Japan, Taiwan, and China (participating for the first time since 2018) continue to top the rankings. But the headline story is the long-term decline across the OECD. Scores began flattening around 2012, then fell, then took a huge dive during COVID. The surprise in the latest data is that the decline has continued at roughly the same pace even after the pandemic's acute phase ended.
Why grades are falling: more than COVID
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:48) **The Puzzle: Declining Exam Scores Across the Rich World** - Good grades predict higher earnings and longer life, yet scores on the OECD's PISA tests are falling.
- 2 (02:29) **What the PISA Tests Actually Measure** - The tests assess applied knowledge, not just rote memorization, in maths, science, and reading.
- 3 (04:02) **The Long-Term Decline Since 2012** - Scores have been flattening and then falling since 2012, with a huge dive during the pandemic and a surprising further drop after.
- 4 (04:39) **Why the Pandemic Isn't the Only Culprit** - Higher absence rates, grade inflation, and lax discipline in schools are compounding the problem.
- 5 (05:24) **The Ambiguous Role of Technology and AI** - Haphazard tech integration and AI used as a crutch may be dragging down grades rather than boosting them.
- 6 (07:18) **What the Top-Performing Asian Countries Do Differently** - They prioritize smaller class sizes less and emphasize knowledge-rich curriculums and societal value on education.
- 7 (08:11) **A Western Bright Spot: England's Old-Fashioned Approach** - England has bucked the trend by returning to a more traditional, knowledge-rich schooling system.
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Show Notes
International tests in maths and reading show that 15-year-olds today score what 14-year-olds would have done a decade ago. Our correspondent explains the long-term decline. Is Miami’s thriving economic growth sustainable? And why Jeremy Vine’s BBC Radio 2 show is a microcosm of Britain.
Guests and host:
- Mark Johnson, senior editor
- Cerian Richmond Jones, international economics correspondent
- Sonny Loughran, Britain correspondent
- Rosie Blau, co-host of “The Intelligence”
Topics covered:
- PISA, education, test scores, exams, aptitude
- Miami, Trump, Florida, hurricane
- Jeremy Vine, Radio 2, BBC
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