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5 min readNational front-runner: who can beat Le Pen?
For the first time in a decade, Emmanuel Macron cannot stand for re-election in France. The constitutional bar on a third consecutive term has opened a race that, with seven months to go, has narrowed to a single question: who can beat Marine Le Pen? The polls, remarkably stable over three years, show her with a commanding lead in the low-to-mid thirties for the first round—at least thirteen points ahead of her closest rival. And in each of the three runoff scenarios tested, she wins. Against Édouard Philippe, Macron’s first prime minister, she would take 55% to 45%. The centre is struggling to produce a candidate around whom voters can rally.
Why this time feels different
Polls this far out have often been wrong. Macron himself was barely tested before 2017, and candidates who looked like favourites—Édouard Balladur in 1994, Alain Juppé in 2016—crashed out. But Sophie Pedder, The Economist’s Paris bureau chief, points to a crucial difference: Le Pen has only once dipped below 30% in the past three years. That is extraordinarily high and extraordinarily stable. Clément Beaune, a former Europe minister from Macron’s party, told her the difference between this election and previous ones is that “it is possible this time for her to win.”
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:45) **The Central Question of the French Election** - With Emmanuel Macron constitutionally barred from a third term, the race to succeed him has narrowed to a single problem: who can beat the far-right front-runner Marine Le Pen.
- 2 (05:09) **The Fragmented Opposition and the Risk of Two Extremes** - The broad center is splintered among at least 15 candidates, making it difficult for any one figure to qualify for the runoff against Le Pen.
- 3 (07:05) **Why the Center's Candidates Are Struggling** - The leading centrist hopefuls are all former Macron ministers, making it nearly impossible for them to present themselves as the necessary outsider.
- 4 (11:14) **The Buffer Zone on India's Border with Bangladesh** - Kieran Husein reports from Hakimpur in West Bengal, where a one-kilometer-wide buffer zone inside Indian territory is making life increasingly difficult for 25,000 Indian citizens.
- 5 (12:25) **Why the India-Bangladesh Border is So Contentious** - Colonial history created a 4,100-kilometer border that is one of the world's longest and leakiest, with families split across the line.
- 6 (13:57) **The Religious Double Standard in Deportations** - The deportations are being applied selectively, with a clear bias against Muslims and in favor of Hindus.
- 7 (16:27) **Life Inside the Buffer Zone** - The 25,000 Indian citizens living in the zone face daily harassment and restrictions that are pushing them to want to leave.
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Show Notes
Marine Le Pen, party leader of France’s populist-right National Rally, starts her fourth presidential bid with a commanding lead. The country’s political centre is broad, fragmented—and flagging. A buffer zone against so-called infiltrators in India’s West Bengal state is making life miserable also for Indian citizens. And how Argentina’s supply of horses and cowboys led to world dominance in polo.
Guests and host:
- Sophie Pedder, Paris bureau chief
- Kira Huju, Asia correspondent
- Hamish Clayton, culture writer
- Rosie Blau, co-host of “The Intelligence”
- Jason Palmer, co-host of “The Intelligence”
Topics covered:
- French politics, Marine Le Pen
- India, West Bengal, Bangladesh, Hindu nationalism
- Argentina, polo
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