AI Summary
5 min readIn February 2025, President Donald Trump announced what he called a "great breakfast" breakthrough: a 20-point peace plan that would see Hamas lay down its arms in Gaza and Israeli forces withdraw, all in a synchronized, simple process. The Board of Peace, assembled by Trump in January, had supposedly brokered the deal. But by the next day, the board was already walking back the promise. As The Economist’s Israel correspondent, Anshel Pfeffer, explained, both sides remain deeply skeptical and are essentially waiting for the other to screw it up.
Ten months after the ceasefire was officially announced, the situation on the ground tells a different story. Roughly 2.1 million Gazans are clustered in about a third of the Strip. Three-quarters are displaced. Since the ceasefire was declared, over 1,200 people have been killed by Israeli strikes. Three forces control Gaza: the Israeli army occupies about two-thirds of the territory; Hamas controls the remaining third; and a number of Israeli-sponsored militias hold small enclaves. The line between Israel and the rest of Gaza is blurred, and the core question of where Israel will withdraw to in an interim period remains unresolved.
The devil in the disarmament details
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:40) **Gaza: The Gap Between Trump's Deal and Reality** - President Trump's announcement of a breakthrough deal for Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal is already being walked back, as the ten-month-old ceasefire has failed to stop violence.
- 2 (03:46) **Who Controls Gaza? Three Competing Forces** - The territory is divided among the Israeli army, Hamas, and Israeli-backed militias, creating a blurred frontline that complicates any withdrawal plan.
- 3 (04:37) **The Unfinished Details of Trump's 20-Point Plan** - The plan, announced ten months ago, agreed to in principle by both sides, still lacks critical specifics on sequencing, implementation, and who will take charge.
- 4 (06:50) **The "Alphabet Soup" of New Gaza Administrations** - A host of untested new bodies are supposed to take over in Gaza, but none are operational, and their roles remain undefined.
- 5 (08:51) **Why Both Sides Are Waiting for the Other to Fail** - Neither Hamas nor Israel is in a rush to implement the deal, as each faces internal and external pressures that make any concession politically costly.
- 6 (10:28) **Real Movement: Likely Slow and Marginal** - Diplomats expect snail's-pace progress, with any significant change unlikely until after Israel's election in July, creating a potential window of opportunity.
- 7 (12:55) **America's Small Business Boom: A Lasting Shift** - Full-time self-employment has reached its highest level this century, with 16.8 million Americans working for themselves, driven by a sustained surge in new business applications since COVID-19.
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Show Notes
President Donald Trump’s claim that Hamas had agreed to disarm in Gaza was, at best, premature. We examine the sticking points of a lasting deal. New-business applications are on a tear in America. We ask why so many people are working for themselves—but not doing much hiring. And the enduring popularity of radio in Africa, aided rather than degraded by social media.
Guests and host:
- Anshel Pfeffer, Israel correspondent
- Shera Avi-Yonah, business correspondent
- William Finlator, contributor to The Economist
- Jason Palmer, co-host of “The Intelligence”
Topics covered:
- Gaza, Hamas, Israel, Board of Peace
- American business, entrepreneurship
- Africa, media, radio
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