The Intelligence from The Economist
The Intelligence from The Economist

Home disadvantage: risks in housing markets

September 24, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

In 2021, when central banks began jacking up interest rates to tame inflation, the doomsayers predicted a global housing crash. It never came. House prices across the rich world barely budged from their all-time peaks, and in many countries they are still at those peaks in real terms. But the situation has shifted meaningfully since then, and the housing market today is far more vulnerable to rising rates than it was just a few years ago. The Economist’s senior economic writer, Callum Williams, explains that three structural factors have eroded the market’s defenses: the type of mortgages people hold, the depletion of household savings, and a slow but steady increase in housing supply.

Why the housing market shrugged off the last rate shock

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:55) **The Housing Market's New Vulnerability** - Jason Palmer introduces the segment by noting that rising bond yields, which have been causing jitters, may now pose a bigger threat to housing markets than during the last rate-hike cycle.
  • 2 (02:20) **The Mortgage Shift: From Fixed to Variable** - Calvin Williams explains how the composition of mortgages has changed, making homeowners more exposed to rising rates.
  • 3 (06:44) **The Depleted Cushion: Household Finances** - The second factor is that the pandemic-era savings buffer that helped households cope with higher costs has been spent.
  • 4 (07:44) **Supply Is Finally Arriving** - The third factor is that housing construction, which was exceptionally low during the 2010s, has picked up, reducing the supply constraint that previously propped up prices.
  • 5 (08:53) **The Changed Outlook** - Williams reflects on the shift in his own analysis, moving from a "don't worry" stance during the pandemic to a more cautious view now.
  • 6 Mentioned Resources
  • 7 **The Economist** - "Home disadvantage: risks in housing markets" (This episode's primary analysis segment, featuring Calvin Williams).

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Callum Williams

Show Notes

Rich-world house prices survived the last fit of interest-rate rises; our correspondent lays out why they may not this time. Nine months after Australia banned social media for under-16s, we ask if anything has changed. And a critical look at Israel’s hit show “Fauda” as it tackles the atrocities of October 7th.

Guests and host:

  • Callum Williams, senior economics writer
  • Josh Spencer, Asia news editor
  • Andrew Miller, special correspondent
  • Jason Palmer, co-host of “The Intelligence”

Topics covered:

  • housing markets, bond yields, interest rates
  • Australia, social media bans
  • “Fauda”, October 7th

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