Gulf-co-operation counsel: what next for the region

June 30, 2026

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5 min read

The Gulf after the war: a region that can no longer take stability for granted

"Day after day attacks on and from Iran. Attacks on U.S. allies, Bahrain, and Kuwait." Over four months, thousands of Iranian missile and drone strikes hit Gulf states, causing tens of billions of dollars in damage. The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed for months. And yet, mercifully, very few people died. Compare that to the invasion of Kuwait in 1990, when hundreds of civilians were killed. The Gulf states spent huge sums to keep shelves stocked and economies functioning. They blunted the most direct impact of the war for their residents. But the damage that may prove hardest to repair is not physical. It is the erosion of the one thing that made the modern Gulf possible: the perception that the region is stable and secure.

A region transformed, then shaken

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What you'll learn

1 (01:43) **The Gulf After the Iran War** - The Gulf states face a new, elevated level of risk after months of Iranian attacks, challenging their core economic model built on stability.
2 (04:03) **The Gulf's Transformation and Damaged Perception** - The region has evolved from a simple petrol station into a global hub for finance, logistics, and tourism, but this growth depended on a perception of stability that Iran has now damaged.
3 (04:48) **The Pivotal Role of Donald Trump** - The permanence of the damage to the Gulf's stability depends heavily on the outcome of US-Iran negotiations, which are tied to Donald Trump.
4 (05:48) **Three Post-War Challenges for the Gulf** - The region will face three major challenges: rebuilding confidence, rethinking economic diversification under elevated risk, and navigating geopolitics with eroded trust.
5 (06:11) **Uneven Readiness Across the Gulf** - Countries are not equally prepared for these challenges, with the UAE and Bahrain representing opposite ends of the spectrum.
6 (07:23) **The War's Impact on Economic Diversification** - The war will accelerate existing changes in Gulf economies, shifting investment from luxury projects to strategic sectors like defense, logistics, and food security.
7 (08:32) **The Challenge of Disunity** - The war has exposed deep divisions among Gulf states regarding Iran, and they are unlikely to become more united.

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Show Notes

With Iran emboldened and America an ever more capricious security partner, Gulf countries face several post-war challenges. They should put their divides aside to tackle them. We dig one last time into our archive to chronicle American history, bringing our series up to the present day. And the mounting evidence that plants can “hear”.

Guests and host:

Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent
Annie Crabill, senior digital editor
Matt Kaplan, science correspondent
Rosie Blau, co-host of “The Intelligence”
Jason Palmer, co-host of “The Intelligence”

Topics covered:

Iran war, Middle East geopolitics
American history, semiquincentennials
plants, biology, science

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