The Intelligence from The Economist
The Intelligence from The Economist

Dunes and gloom: MBS’s annus horribilis

October 22, 2026

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5 min read

Dunes and gloom: MBS’s annus horribilis

Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammed bin Salman should have been gearing up for his big annual summit, the Future Investment Initiative—known as Davos in the Desert—where he glad-hands dignitaries and investors. On October 19, it was cancelled. “It’s just not safe for all those dignitaries,” says Greg Carlstrom, The Economist’s Middle East correspondent, “and it’s just the latest way in which MBS is having a terrible year.”

Three bets, all going wrong

When MBS came to power a decade ago, he made three big gambles: that he could defeat the Houthis in Yemen, that he could reshape the Saudi economy, and that he could forge a close relationship with Donald Trump. All three are unraveling simultaneously.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (01:40) **MBS’s Annus Horribilis: Three Big Bets Unravel** - Greg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent, introduces the crown prince’s three main gambles—defeating the Houthis, reshaping the Saudi economy, and forging a reliable alliance with Donald Trump—all of which are failing simultaneously.
  • 2 (03:58) **Economic Diversification Stalls Before the War** - Even before the recent conflict, Saudi Arabia’s economic transformation was falling short of its ambitious targets.
  • 3 (05:18) **Trump’s Iran War Adds Uncertainty** - The crown prince’s bet on a close relationship with Trump has backfired, as the US president’s war of choice in Iran creates economic uncertainty beyond Riyadh’s control.
  • 4 (06:43) **How the Crisis Lands at Home** - Despite the unraveling of his bets, MBS retains significant domestic goodwill, though the situation is precarious.
  • 5 (07:46) **Lessons from 2018-2019: A Deeper Hole This Time** - MBS has survived crises before, but the current one is different because the major decisions are out of his hands and the easy reforms are done.
  • 6 (14:02) **Phone Call from Prison: Sam Bankman-Fried on Effective Altruism** - Shira Ovida, US business correspondent, recounts a 15-minute call with SBF from Lompoc Federal Prison, where he discusses his ongoing belief in effective altruism and his regrets.
  • 7 (17:26) **SBF’s Defense: A Mismatch of Timing, Not Intent** - Bankman-Fried maintains his innocence, arguing that FTX was a legitimate business that could have survived if he had been given more time.

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Guests on this episode

Greg Carlstrom

Show Notes

This week, Muhammad bin Salman, crown prince of Saudi Arabia, was forced to postpone his annual investment summit. His other big bets on the kingdom’s future are also floundering. Sam Bankman-Fried, a crypto-billionaire supporter of effective altruism, calls our correspondent from prison. And things look hazy in Singapore and other Asian countries.

Guests and host:

  • Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondent
  • Shera Avi-Yonah, US business correspondent
  • Vishnu Padmanabhan, Asia correspondent
  • Rosie Blau, co-host of “The Intelligence”
  • Jason Palmer, co-host of “The Intelligence”

Topics covered:

  • MBS, Saudi, Davos in the desert, Future Investment Initiative
  • Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX, effective altruism
  • Indonesia, Singapore, wildfires, El Niño

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