The Intelligence from The Economist
The Intelligence from The Economist

All right on the night: AfD’s victory

September 7, 2026

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5 min read

All right on the night: AfD’s victory

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won 44 percent of the vote in the East German state of Saxony-Anhalt — a result so far beyond what opinion polls had predicted that even the party's own supporters were stunned. "When we got the first exit polls at 6 PM projecting that the AfD had won 44% of the vote, which was more than any opinion poll had projected… the mood was ecstatic," reported The Economist's Berlin bureau chief Tom Nuttall, who was at the AfD's election night party in Magdeburg. "You had all of these AfD grandees on stage hugging each other, leading the crowd in lusty renditions of German songs and the national anthem." The result brings Germany closer than it has been since the Second World War to having a far-right state premier.

A collapse for the Christian Democrats and a new coalition calculus

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (02:06) **AfD's Stunning Victory in Saxony-Anhalt** - The far-right Alternative for Germany party wins 44% of the vote, a result far exceeding expectations and shaking German politics.
  • 2 (04:43) **Collapse of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)** - The CDU's vote share more than halves to 17%, a devastating blow for Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party.
  • 3 (06:03) **The BSW Party as Kingmaker** - A populist left-wing party, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), just clears the 5% threshold, creating a potential path for the AfD to form a government.
  • 4 (07:15) **Likely Stalemate and Uncertain Future** - No clear path to a stable government exists, raising the possibility of a prolonged political crisis or fresh elections.
  • 5 (08:35) **Implications for Germany and Europe** - The result is a "body blow" to Germany's post-war identity of excluding extremists, and it emboldens populist parties across the continent.
  • 6 (11:49) **The Climate Case for Cutting Contrails** - Oliver Morton explains that the warming effect of airplane condensation trails could be half as significant as the CO2 emitted by aviation, and a new trial aims to reduce them.
  • 7 (13:58) **How to Avoid Persistent Contrails** - The most damaging contrails form only in specific "ice super-saturated regions," and planes can avoid them with small altitude changes.

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Guests on this episode

Oliver Morton

Show Notes

Alternative for Germany won an even larger share of the vote than expected in yesterday’s state election. What does the far-right nationalist party’s success mean for Germany and Europe? The climate case for limiting vapour trails from aeroplanes. And why South Korean youths are turning to Buddhism. 


Guests and host:

  • Tom Nuttall, Berlin bureau chief
  • Oliver Morton, planetary affairs editor
  • Soobin Kim, Korea writer
  • Rosie Blau, co-host of “The Intelligence”


Topics covered: 

  • AfD, Alternative for Germany, Alternative für Deutschland
  • contrails, aviation, climate science
  • South Korea, Buddhism


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