AI Summary
5 min readThe Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes, has been closed for seven weeks due to the war in the Middle East. Oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel. While Americans feel the pinch at the pump, the disruption is hitting other nations far harder—triggering blackouts, fuel rationing, and even the risk of running out of oil entirely. This episode examines how three very different countries are coping: New Zealand, Zimbabwe, and China.
New Zealand: A Countdown to Empty Tanks
New Zealand is a high-income nation, but it sits at the very end of the global oil supply chain. As economist Eric Crampton of the New Zealand Initiative explains, the country is “entirely reliant on refined supplies coming in from overseas,” primarily from South Korea and Singapore—both of which source their crude from the Middle East. The result is a severe squeeze on diesel, the fuel that powers the country’s food production, distribution, and movement of essential goods. Diesel prices have jumped roughly 70% to the equivalent of $7.27 per gallon.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (00:22) **Global Oil Crisis Deepens** - The episode opens by framing the global oil crisis seven weeks into a Middle East war, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting 20% of global oil supply and sending prices above $100 a barrel.
- 2 (02:21) **New Zealand: Vulnerable at the End of the Supply Chain** - New Zealand is uniquely exposed because it relies entirely on imported refined fuel from South Korea and Singapore, which themselves source crude from the Middle East.
- 3 (04:33) **New Zealand’s Policy Dilemma: Resist Price Controls** - The government faces pressure to intervene with rationing or fuel tax cuts but has resisted, unlike Australia, which already cut fuel taxes.
- 4 (05:49) **Zimbabwe: Crushing Prices on a Low-Income Economy** - Zimbabwe, also entirely reliant on imports, has seen petrol prices rise 40% in less than a month to $2.23 per liter (roughly $8/gallon), among the highest in Africa.
- 5 (07:36) **Zimbabwe’s Partial Relief Measures** - The government has cut taxes on diesel to protect industry and is considering adding more ethanol to oil to lower pump prices.
- 6 (07:58) **China: Best Positioned and Deliberately Prepared** - China, one of the world’s biggest oil consumers and heavily dependent on imports, is by far the best situated country to handle the crisis, according to China Beige Book’s Shazad Khazi.
- 7 (09:18) **China’s Sanctions Advantage** - China continues to import Iranian oil despite the war, benefiting from U.S. sanctions that give it access to critical resources at well-below-market prices.
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Show Notes
On today’s show, we take stock of how three countries, New Zealand, Zimbabwe, and China, are navigating the oil crisis.
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