Some Trump Voters Are Gushing Over This Iowa Democrat (with Elaine Godfrey)
October 17, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readSome Trump Voters Are Gushing Over This Iowa Democrat
A funny thing is happening in Iowa: Trump voters who now disapprove of the president are falling for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate named Rob Sand. One focus group participant put it bluntly: "I just want to say I love Rob Sand." Another praised him for being willing to "buck back" and say things "with a big middle finger." This is not the kind of language you usually hear from Trump voters about Democrats, and it points to something real happening in red states this cycle.
The Rob Sand Formula
Rob Sand is the Iowa state auditor who has been leading in just about every general election poll for governor for months. According to Atlantic staff writer Elaine Godfrey, who has followed him since his "99 County town halls" during his auditor days, what you see is what you get. He's folksy without trying to be folksy, has a specific northern Iowa accent that sounds almost Minnesotan, and is "kinda awkward" with a dad-joke sense of humor that doesn't always land.
Godfrey said something striking about him: "If it turns out that Rob Sand is having an affair and kind of a sleaze bag, then I'm quitting this job because he is so convincing in his authenticity." The caveat is important — you can be an authentic sleaze bag — but voters are clearly responding to something real.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:00) **Introduction: Sarah Longwell and Elaine Godfrey** - Sarah introduces the episode's focus on red-state Democrats who might pull off upsets, with guest Elaine Godfrey (The Atlantic, Iowa native).
- 2 (04:35) **Iowa Governor Race: The Rob Sand Appeal** - Trump voters who disapprove of Trump discuss Democratic candidate Rob Sand, showing his unique crossover appeal.
- 3 (10:34) **Elaine's On-the-Ground Assessment of Rob Sand** - Elaine explains why Sand's "folksy earnestness" is genuine and strategically effective.
- 4 (13:38) **The "Third Thing": Sand's Political Positioning** - Sand is doing a "third thing" beyond being a loud progressive or a corporate moderate.
- 5 (19:41) **Why Rob Sand Is Outperforming Josh Turek** - The Senate candidate is less known and less effective at projecting the same independent energy.
- 6 (26:31) **Mississippi: A Long-Shot Opportunity** - Democrat Scott Colom is making a race against unpopular incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith.
- 7 (31:40) **Nebraska: Independent Dan Osborne's Strategy** - Independent candidate Dan Osborne is running against Pete Ricketts, capitalizing on anti-incumbent sentiment.
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Guests on this episode
Show Notes
There are a lot of red states with big elections this year where Democrats are 'sayin' there's a chance,' like Mississippi, Nebraska, South Carolina, or Iowa, where they may have more than just a chance. The Atlantic's Elaine Godfrey joins Sarah to talk about her travels with Iowa's two leading Democratic candidates, the other long shots Democrats are eyeing in red states, and what disaffected Trump voters are saying about all of it.
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Show links:
Sarah's Focus Group Newsletter on Ashley Hinson
Elaine Godfrey: A Democrat in Name Only
Elaine Godfrey: Democrats Might Actually Win Iowa
Elaine Godfrey: The GOP’s Culture-War Hail Mary
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