Republicans Are Suddenly Fighting for Their Lives in Ohio (with Andrew Tobias)
September 26, 2026
AI Summary
5 min readRepublicans Are Suddenly Fighting for Their Lives in Ohio
In Ohio, a state Donald Trump won by 11 points in 2024, two Republican statewide candidates are underperforming badly enough that Democrats have a real shot in both the Senate and governor's races. The single issue driving much of this is data centers — huge tax breaks for tech companies that voters across the political spectrum have come to hate. Andrew Tobias, state government and politics reporter at Signal Ohio, joined Sarah Longwell to explain how a policy that Republicans thought would be a win has become a liability, and why voters who backed Trump are now sounding deeply disenchanted.
The Data Center Backlash
Ohio locked in a 40-year, 50% tax break for Meta, Amazon, and Google. When the actual value of that break was disclosed, it turned out to be $1.5 billion — ten times what lawmakers had expected. That shocked the state legislature and led Governor Mike DeWine to impose a de facto moratorium on new deals. But the damage was already done for John Husted, the former Secretary of State and Lieutenant Governor who was appointed to the Senate when JD Vance became Vice President. Husted was the architect of these economic development deals, and voters now associate him directly with the data center boom.
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What you'll learn
- 1 (01:00) **Episode Introduction & Framing** - Sarah Longwell sets up the Ohio episode, explaining why the state is unexpectedly competitive in 2026.
- 2 (02:55) **Why Ohio Is Swingier: The Data Center Issue** - Andrew Tobias identifies the national environment and a specific local issue as the main drivers.
- 3 (05:05) **Focus Group: Trump Disapprovers on Sherrod Brown** - We hear from 2024 Trump voters who now disapprove of Trump's performance, discussing Sherrod Brown.
- 4 (10:51) **Analysis: Sherrod Brown's Campaign Strategy** - Longwell and Tobias discuss how Brown is running a different race than in 2024.
- 5 (16:24) **The Three Vectors of Voter Dislike for Data Centers** - Longwell breaks down why data centers are such a potent populist issue.
- 6 (18:22) **How the Data Center Issue Broke for Husted** - Tobias details the political miscalculation that turned a supposed win into a major liability.
- 7 (20:28) **Focus Group: John Husted Is an Undefined Candidate** - Voters express deep uncertainty and negativity about John Husted.
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Guests on this episode
Show Notes
Ohio used to be the biggest swing state in the country. It's turned pretty red, (Trump won it by 11 points in 2024) but it's very hotly contested this year, and there's one big overarching local issue driving it. Signal Ohio state government and politics reporter Andrew Tobias joins Sarah to break down the major players.
Show links:
Signal Ohio
Sarah's Focus Group Newsletter on Vivek Ramaswamy
Sarah's Thank You to the Bulwark Community (Comment here for her AMA next Friday)
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