AI Summary
5 min readBefore Donald Trump had been back in office for even two years, his net approval rating collapsed by more than 30 points. The same voters who gave him his first popular-vote victory in 2024 are now telling focus groups that he is “lying” about prices, that they feel “powerless” against decisions being made over their heads, and that they are beginning to see his corruption as impossible to ignore. Sarah Longwell, a political consultant who has conducted hundreds of focus groups with Trump voters since 2016, joins Ezra Klein to explain how the coalition that put Trump back in power is now fracturing — and what the 2026 midterms could look like as a result.
The Price of Broken Promises
Longwell argues that the central story of Trump’s second term is simple: voters hired him to do one job — lower prices — and he did the opposite. “It’s the easiest question in politics right now,” she says. Trump made two specific, unilateral choices: imposing tariffs across the board and launching a war with Iran. Both raised prices. And voters know it was him. “You can’t say Joe Biden did that. You can’t say it was someone else, Congress.”
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What you'll learn
- 1 (02:06) **The Collapse of Trump’s Approval** - Sarah Longwell explains the core reason Trump’s approval rating has plummeted from above 50% to 37.5%.
- 2 (04:56) **The Price of Ground Beef as a Political Signal** - A focus group clip reveals how voters experience the economy through daily purchases, not policy rhetoric.
- 3 (05:42) **The “America First” Promise vs. Reality** - Longwell explains what swing voters believed Trump represented in 2024 and why that belief is now broken.
- 4 (11:12) **The Rise of “Vibe” Politics and News Receivers** - The shift from news seekers to news receivers and how it changes voter perception.
- 5 (14:36) **Corruption Finally Breaks Through** - Why corruption, long ignored by Trump voters, has become their top concern, outpacing even prices and immigration.
- 6 (18:36) **John Ossoff’s Masterclass on Framing Corruption** - How Senator Ossoff makes the corruption case against Trump stick by telling a story, not listing grievances.
- 7 (23:38) **The Epstein Files and the Broken Trust** - How the failure to release the Epstein files shattered a key promise to a specific strain of Trump voter.
+ Full timestamped outline available in the app
Guests on this episode
Show Notes
Sarah Longwell has probably conducted more focus groups with Trump voters than anyone else in America — hundreds of them, starting in Trump’s first term. So she has a treasure trove of qualitative evidence of how voters have evolved in the Trump era and why many of the president’s voters are souring on him now.
Trump’s approval rating has plummeted since the start of his second term, especially among the groups that swung toward him in the last election — young, Black and Hispanic voters. But I wanted to have Longwell on the show to hear what these people are really saying. What exactly has disappointed them about Trump’s second term? And what opportunities could that open for Democrats?
Longwell is a founder and the publisher of The Bulwark, the host of “The Focus Group Podcast” and the author of “How to Eat an Elephant: One Voter at a Time.”
Mentioned:
“Trump Voters Explain Ossoff’s Appeal. And It’s Not What You Think.” by Sarah Longwell
Book Recommendations:
“Intermezzo” by Sally Rooney
“Stoner” by John Williams
“The Poisonwood Bible” by Barbara Kingsolver
Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at [email protected].
You can find the transcript and more episodes of “The Ezra Klein Show” at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.html
This episode of “The Ezra Klein Show” was produced by Annie Galvin and Jack McCordick. Fact-checking by Kelsey Lannin, Michelle Harris and Kate Sinclair. Our senior engineer is Jeff Geld, with additional mixing by Aman Sahota and Isaac Jones. Our recording engineer is Aman Sahota. Cinematography by Bets Wilkins. Video editing by Julian Hackney, Britt Shacham Bernstein and Arpita Aneja. Our executive producer is Claire Gordon. The show’s production team also includes Marie Cascione, Kristin Lin, Emma Kehlbeck, Rollin Hu, Marina King and Jan Kobal. Original music by Pat McCusker. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta. The director of New York Times Opinion Shows is Annie-Rose Strasser. Transcript editing by Sarah Murphy and Marlaine Glicksma
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