Is This The X Factor In The Midterms?

The midterm elections are approaching, and according to Dan Bongino, the pundits and pollsters are missing a critical variable: the loyalty of Donald Trump’s base has not eroded. Bongino cites CNN’s Harry Enten, who reports that Trump’s approval rating among MAGA Republicans sits at 98%, statistically identical to the 99% of the MAGA vote he received in the 2024 election. For Bongino, this is the "X factor" that the doomsayers refuse to calculate. The argument of the episode is straightforward: if Trump supporters show up to vote, the Republican coalition has the numbers to win, regardless of what the media narrative suggests.

The Case for the Trump Administration’s Record

Bongino spends much of the episode defending the Trump administration’s performance, arguing that the data has been systematically underreported or ignored. He points to a series of economic and crime statistics to make his case. On inflation, he cites economist Steve Moore’s data showing that inflation under Trump averaged 3% compared to 5% under Biden, with a chart showing Trump’s annualized CPI at 1.9% during his first term versus Biden’s 4.97%. On manufacturing, Bongino highlights the announcement of the largest steel plant in American history, to be built by Mesabi Metallics in Iowa. On the federal workforce, he notes that the government has been reduced by more than 336,000 bureaucrats since Trump