The Dan Bongino Show
The Dan Bongino Show

Are The Polls Missing This?

October 13, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

The choice in this election is clear, but the polls might be missing something. Dan Bongino argues that the Trump administration's crackdown on voter fraud is already having a quiet but dramatic effect, and that the media's narrative of a "blue wave" is designed to keep Republican voters at home. Drawing on data from early voting in Michigan and Florida, a CNN analysis showing polls may be underestimating Republicans by 3.5 points, and recent DOJ charges against 16 individuals for election crimes, Bongino makes the case that the Democrats are starting to panic.

The Case for Showing Up

Bongino's central argument is a stark contrast between the parties' records. He points to Joe Biden's midterm performance—where Democrats showed up despite 9% inflation and an open border—as proof that the opposition party will vote no matter what. "They showed up for this nearly senile guy in the White House," Bongino says, while Republicans have "a two-year record of just incredible stats and results" under Trump: closed borders, lower crime, a booming stock market, and the lowest poverty rate in decades. His frustration is aimed at "doomers" on the right who tell people to stay home. "We don't have any of those problems," he insists, and failing to vote hands the country to a party whose activists, as shown in man-on-the-street interviews, oppose deporting even violent criminals.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 (00:10) **Show Opening & Kate Zachariah Press Conference** - Dan explains the delayed start so listeners could watch new White House Press Secretary Kate Zachariah’s first press conference, which he sees as a key part of advancing the Trump agenda.
  • 2 (00:46) **The X Factor: Voter Fraud Crackdown** - Dan introduces his central thesis: the Trump administration’s crackdown on voter fraud is a major reason Democrats are panicking and hedging on poll predictions.
  • 3 (01:17) **Hollywood Hypocrisy: Casey Musgraves vs. Metallica** - Dan contrasts left-wing celebrity political rants with performers who stick to entertainment, using this as a metaphor for the election choice.
  • 4 (09:25) **The Midterm Mystery: Why Did Democrats Show Up for Biden?** - Dan expresses bewilderment that Democrats turned out for Joe Biden in the 2022 midterms despite his disastrous record, and warns Republicans not to repeat that mistake.
  • 5 (13:37) **Man on the Street: The Alternative** - Dan plays a street interview with a left-wing activist to show voters the "alternative" they are choosing if they stay home or vote Democrat.
  • 6 (17:21) **Tactical Voting Advice: Bank Your Vote** - Dan urges listeners to vote early to save campaigns money and reduce political harassment, citing a real-world example.
  • 7 (18:56) **CNN Admits Polls Are Likely Wrong** - Dan highlights a CNN analysis showing that if the historical anti-Trump polling error repeats, Republicans will easily hold the Senate with 52 seats.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Show Notes

In this episode, cover why the latest Senate map has Democrats sweating, and what the pollsters keep getting wrong about Republicans.


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https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-case-for-firing-squads-a9880cad


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