PREDICTION: Will Luka Doncic FINALLY Win His First MVP Award?! | Can Anyone STEAL DPOY from Wemby?

September 21, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

"Wemby is the odds on favorite at minus 340," one host notes, calling those odds "absolutely absurd" for a season-long award in September. But the conversation quickly moves to the central question that organizes the entire episode: can Luka Dončić finally win his first MVP award, and what would have to happen for that to become reality?

The hosts, Dana Cunningham and Swiper, agree that Dončić is their early pick for MVP, but their agreement is laced with caveats. The discussion reveals that while Dončić has the counting stats—projected averages around 33.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 9.1 assists—the real hurdles are team record and advanced impact metrics.

The MVP case for Luka Dončić

Swiper makes the case first. He points to Dončić entering what he calls "your turn era" of MVP voting, where voters may be looking for a first-time winner after years of Jokić, Embiid, and Giannis dominating the conversation. Dončić finished top three in 2024 but hasn't had many high MVP finishes since 2020. The key change, Swiper argues, is that the Lakers have intentionally built around Dončić's skill set this offseason, adding Walker Kessler, shooters, and role players designed to maximize his game. "This is literally the team designed for Luka to go out there and get numbers with," he says.

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What you'll learn

1 (04:17) **MVP Predictions: A First-Time Winner?** - The hosts debate the top five contenders and make their early pick for the 2024-25 MVP award.
2 (09:09) **Why Luka Doncic is the Pick** - The hosts explain their shared confidence in Doncic and the key condition for his candidacy: team wins.
3 (12:24) **MVP Top 5 Finish Predictions** - The hosts give their predicted order for the MVP ballot at the end of the season.
4 (15:59) **Defensive Player of the Year: Wemby is the Heavy Favorite** - The hosts discuss the DPOY race, acknowledging Victor Wembanyama's overwhelming odds to win.
5 (20:57) **Sixth Man of the Year: A Tough Award to Peg** - The hosts try to predict the winner of the Sixth Man of the Year award, focusing on scoring production.
6 (25:17) **Rookie of the Year: It's All About Opportunity** - The hosts analyze a loaded rookie class, predicting the winner will be the player with the biggest role on a bad team.
7 (28:35) **Coach of the Year: Quin Snyder and a Dark Horse** - The hosts make their predictions for the Coach of the Year award, which lacks betting odds.

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Show Notes

On this edition of Locked On NBA Game Night, Danny Cunningham (Locked On Cavs) and Swipa (Locked On Nuggets) give their way-too-early picks for who will win the awards in the NBA this season. The guys debate whether Luka Doncic will take home his first MVP trophy, if anyone can unseat Victor Wembanyama for Defensive Player of the Year and more.

Image Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Check out Danny’s Substack, The Inside Shot: https://theinsideshot.substack.com/

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