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How Many NBA Teams Can ACTUALLY Win the Championship?

September 14, 2026

AI Summary

5 min read

One of the most revealing numbers in the NBA right now is twelve. That is how many teams analyst Matt Moore believes have a realistic chance of making the NBA Finals this season. In an era that used to boil down to three or four legitimate contenders, the league has become so wide open that a dozen franchises can enter a season believing a title run is possible. The conversation on Locked On NBA Daily quickly pivots from that surprising breadth to a sharper, more uncomfortable question: which of those contenders is most likely to miss the playoffs entirely?

A Dozen Teams, One Realistic Path

The hosts—West Goldberg, Matt Moore, and Hayes—start by defining what "contender" actually means. They settle on a low bar: a team that, if it made the Finals, would not be received as a shocking fluke. By that standard, the list is enormous. Moore rattles off San Antonio, New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Cleveland, Miami, Indiana, Denver, Minnesota, and Detroit. He adds Toronto if the Kawhi Leonard trade goes through, and Hayes throws in Houston. The Eastern Conference alone has nine or ten teams that believe they belong in this conversation.

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What you'll learn

  • 1 Timestamped Outline
  • 2 (00:00) **Show Open & Advertisements** - Podcast network intro, Optimum Fiber ad, Ferguson Home ad, and episode preview teaser
  • 3 (01:44) **Introducing the Contender Question** - West Goldberg sets up the episode's central question: how many NBA teams have a realistic shot at winning the championship this season?
  • 4 (02:20) **Matt's Initial Contender List** - Matt Moore runs through teams he believes have a realistic chance of making the NBA Finals
  • 5 (04:10) **Hayes Expands the List to 12** - Hayes adds Detroit and the Raptors (contingent on the Kawhi trade going through) to Matt's list
  • 6 (05:22) **Defining "Contender" in Today's NBA** - The panel clarifies they mean teams with a realistic chance to make the Finals, not teams they'd bet on to win it all
  • 7 (07:25) **The Low-Floor Question: Which Contender Could Miss the Playoffs?** - West pivots to the second question: of these contenders, which is most likely to miss the play-in tournament entirely

+ Full timestamped outline available in the app

Guests on this episode

Show Notes

How many teams can realistically win the NBA championship this season? Wes Goldberg, Matt Moore and Haize define the true contender field — then flip the question around: Which of those contenders is most likely to miss the playoffs entirely?

Then, Steve Ballmer has finally responded to the Clippers’ salary-cap circumvention punishment. Ballmer apologized to fans, accepted responsibility and announced that Los Angeles will comply with the NBA’s penalties. Could that cooperation eventually convince the league to return some of the Clippers’ lost draft capital? And what happens next for the franchise? Finally, it’s Peak Offseason Content with football back: Wes, Matt and Haize draft their starting five of game-day foods. 

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